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気候政策における負担可能性と信頼性：ポスト共産主義25か国における気候行動への支払意思

Affordability and credibility in climate policy: Willingness to pay for climate action in 25 post-communist countries (原題)

JM, AA, SO, VK

Zenodoプレプリント2026-11-10#炭素価格
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.24104655
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/24104655

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

ポスト共産主義25か国（旧ソ連12か国含む）で、気候行動への支払意思（WTP）をLife in Transition Survey 2010年・2022-23年（31,582人）で分析。家計支出と制度信頼がいずれもWTPと正相関。2010→2023年で所得勾配は2.0→1.0ポイントに低下、信頼勾配は4.1→6.1ポイントに上昇し、旧ソ連・バルト・バルカン諸国に集中、中東欧EU加盟国では見られない。

English

Using 31,582 respondents across 25 post-communist countries (2010 and 2022-23 Life in Transition Survey), the study examines willingness to pay for climate action. Both household expenditure and institutional trust positively predict WTP. Between 2010 and 2023 the income gradient fell (2.0→1.0 pp) while the trust gradient rose (4.1→6.1 pp), concentrated in post-Soviet, Baltic and Balkan states but absent in CEE EU members.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

炭素価格やエネルギー価格改革の政治的受容性は日本でもGX推進の鍵。制度信頼が支払意思を左右するという知見は、カーボンプライシング導入議論やGX経済移行債の国民的合意形成に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Directly informs the political feasibility of carbon pricing and energy-price reform central to EU ETS/CSRD debates and global transition finance. The finding that institutional credibility, not just income, drives WTP reframes how disclosure and revenue-recycling policies build public consent.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:制度信頼と所得が気候政策の支払意思に与える影響を、地域別の軌跡差として定量化した実証研究。

🏢実務担当者:炭素価格・エネルギー価格の転嫁が顧客・社会にどう受け入れられるかを理解する材料。

🏛政策担当者:炭素税収の使途説明と制度信頼の構築が、気候政策の受容性に決定的であることを示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Abstract Climate policies that ask households to bear costs, such as carbon pricing and energy-price reforms, remain politically feasible only if citizens accept those costs. Citizens may be aware of the impacts of climate change and still ask whether they can afford to contribute and whether they trust the state to use their taxes well. We examine how these two conditions are associated with willingness to pay (WTP) for climate action in 25 post-communist countries, 12 of them former Soviet republics, where institutional trust has long been low. Using the 2010 and 2022--2023 waves of the Life in Transition Survey (31,582 respondents), we measure WTP as willingness to give part of one's income or pay higher taxes to combat climate change. A stylized choice model of valuation, affordability, and institutional credibility guides the interpretation of linear probability models with wave interactions. Household expenditure and institutional trust are both positively associated with WTP. Between 2010 and 2023, the pooled income gradient fell from 2.0 to 1.0 percentage points per log unit and the trust gradient rose from 4.1 to 6.1 percentage points per scale point, but these changes differ across institutional trajectories. They are concentrated in the post-Soviet, Baltic, and Balkan countries and absent among the EU members of Central and Eastern Europe, and formal tests reject equal changes across country groups. The divergence in the trust gradient is robust to country-by-wave fixed effects and to inference clustered by country, whereas the pooled changes are estimated less precisely. Our evidence is associational and does not identify the events behind these shifts.  

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