技術代替速度理論：経済変革と産業再編の動的枠組み
Technology Substitution Velocity Theory: A Dynamic Framework for Economic Transformation and Industrial Restructuring (原題)
Jincheng Zhang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、技術革新の速度が産業再編と経済近代化の重要な原動力であると主張し、技術代替速度理論（TSVT）を提案する。置換速度（Vs）と正規化置換速度（NVs）を定義し、利潤格差、ネットワーク外部性、制度的摩擦を考慮した動的微分モデルを構築する。化石燃料エンジンから新エネルギー車への移行を事例に、資本再配分、生産性Jカーブ、労働調整を分析し、速度を高める政策手段を提言する。
English
This paper argues that the velocity of technological substitution, not just innovation, drives industrial restructuring and economic modernization. It introduces the Technology Substitution Velocity Theory (TSVT), defining substitution velocity (Vs) and normalized substitution velocity (NVs), and builds dynamic differential models incorporating profit differentials, network externalities, and institutional friction. Using the transition from fossil fuel engines to new energy vehicles as a case study, it analyzes capital reallocation, productivity J-curves, and labor adjustments, proposing policy instruments to accelerate transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策、特に自動車産業のEV転換やカーボンプライシング導入に示唆を与える。移行速度を高める政策設計（補助金、インフラ整備、規制）の理論的根拠を提供し、産業政策とGX戦略の連携に貢献する。
In the global GX context
This framework offers a theoretical basis for accelerating the energy transition, relevant to global climate policy and transition finance. It provides a lens for evaluating the pace of decarbonization in key sectors, complementing disclosure frameworks like TCFD and ISSB by focusing on the dynamics of technology displacement.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a formal model for analyzing technology substitution velocity, useful for energy transition and innovation economics research.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into the pace of EV adoption and implications for capital allocation and supply chain strategy in the automotive sector.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests policy instruments to accelerate technology substitution, relevant for designing effective decarbonization policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Traditional innovation economics frequently emphasizes the genesis of technology, focusing heavily on research and development inputs and initial scientific breakthroughs. However, historical and contemporary market dynamics demonstrate that the critical driver of industrial restructuring and economic modernization is not merely the appearance of a novel technology, but the speed at which it displaces and supersedes an incumbent legacy technology. This paper introduces the Technology Substitution Velocity Theory (TSVT), establishing a rigorous theoretical and mathematical framework to analyze the velocity of technological displacement. By formally defining substitution velocity ($V_s$) and normalized substitution velocity ($NV_s$), and constructing dynamic differential models that incorporate profit differentials, network externalities, and institutional friction, this study explores the economic drivers and barriers governing industrial transition rates. Using the global transition from fossil fuel combustion engines to new energy vehicles as a canonical case study, we examine capital reallocation dynamics, productivity J-curves, and structural labor adjustments. Finally, we propose velocity-enhancing policy instruments designed to eliminate market inefficiencies, reduce switching costs, and optimize macroeconomic transformation.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21884003first seen 2026-09-01 05:06:27 · last seen 2026-09-01 05:06:45
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