Evolution and future trend of household carbon footprints in aging Japan
日本の高齢化に伴う家計カーボンフットプリントの進化と将来動向 (AI 翻訳)
Junai Yang, Yuze Li, Binyuan Liu, Fei Yan, Ling Tang, Jinjun Xue, Qian Sun, Shouyang Wang
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
2050年カーボンニュートラルを目指す日本で、高齢化・少子化が家計カーボンフットプリントに与える影響を分析。2005〜2020年の調査とMRIO表を用い、2040年までの将来シナリオを推定。高齢者の一人当たり排出量が若年層を上回り、出生率上昇など高齢化抑制策が排出削減に有効と示唆。
English
This study analyzes how Japan's aging population and low birthrate affect household carbon footprints. Using surveys and multiregional input-output tables from 2005-2020 and projecting to 2040, it finds older people now have higher per capita emissions than younger generations. Policies that slow aging, like increased fertility, could mitigate future emissions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のカーボンニュートラル（2050年）目標達成に向け、人口構造変化を踏まえた排出削減策の重要性を示す点で、日本政府の温暖化対策や地方自治体の地域計画に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes globally to understanding the link between demographic shifts and carbon emissions, relevant for countries with aging populations (e.g., EU, South Korea). It provides empirical evidence for integrating demographic policy into climate mitigation strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework linking household surveys with MRIO to estimate age-specific carbon footprints.
🏢実務担当者:Insights for product and service design targeting elderly consumers to reduce carbon footprints.
🏛政策担当者:Suggests that fertility and immigration policies can be part of climate strategy.
📄 Abstract（原文）
In response to the global challenge of climate change mitigation, Japan has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. However, Japan’s rapidly aging population and persistently low birthrate may influence its future carbon emissions. Here we examine the evolution of age-based household carbon footprints in Japan between 2005 and 2020, combining a large-scale household survey with multiregional input-output tables. We then estimate future household carbon footprints under different demographic scenarios between 2020 and 2040, exploring the impacts of demographic changes on household carbon footprints. We find that older people in Japan have gradually surpassed younger generations as the highest per capita carbon emitters. Therefore, scenarios that slow aging trends, such as increased fertility rates, could mitigate future per capita carbon footprints. These findings suggest that demographic structure plays an important role in shaping household carbon footprints, and that policies affecting demographic structure, such as fertility policy, may influence future emissions. Older people in Japan have gradually surpassed younger generations as the group with the highest per-capita household carbon footprints, according to a study using historical surveys and multiregional input–output analysis
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03612-xfirst seen 2026-06-23 05:34:25
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