Move towards a circular economy and a low-carbon industry - A model comparison approach
循環経済と低炭素産業への移行 - モデル比較アプローチ (AI 翻訳)
Meta Thurid Lotz, Vassilis Daioglou, Francesco Dalla Longa, Matthias Rehfeldt
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、統合評価モデルIMAGEと産業部門シミュレーションモデルFORECASTを比較し、EUの建築建設部門における循環経済の貢献を分析。両モデルとも最終エネルギー需要を19〜47%削減できると示すが、脱炭素経路（バイオベース+CCS vs 電化・水素）に相違があり、エネルギー供給部門への影響が異なる。モデル比較の重要性を強調。
English
This study compares the integrated assessment model IMAGE and the industry simulation model FORECAST to analyze the contribution of a circular economy in EU building construction to industry decarbonization by 2050. Both models consistently show a 19-47% reduction in final energy demand, but differ on decarbonization routes: IMAGE favors bio-based processes with carbon capture, while FORECAST prioritizes electrification and hydrogen. These differences have profound implications for the energy supply sector, highlighting the importance of model comparison for robust policymaking.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の産業部門（特に建設・素材産業）の脱炭素戦略において、循環経済の定量評価とモデル比較の手法が参考になる。SSBJやGX推進法に基づく政策立案や、産業界の移行計画策定に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global GX scholarship by demonstrating the value of model intercomparison for industrial decarbonization, a key issue under the Paris Agreement and EU Green Deal. It provides insights for policymakers on the uncertainty of decarbonization pathways and the role of circular economy, relevant to ISSB-aligned transition planning and climate risk assessment.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a rigorous model comparison methodology for assessing circular economy contributions to industrial decarbonization, useful for refining integrated assessment models.
🏢実務担当者:Offers quantitative evidence on the energy demand reduction potential of circular economy in construction, informing corporate sustainability strategies and transition plans.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of considering multiple decarbonization pathways and model uncertainty when designing industrial climate policies and circular economy strategies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract The circular economy has been gaining traction as an effective means to decarbonise the European industrial sector by reducing material demand, especially in the material- and waste-intensive building construction segment. We compare the results of the integrated assessment model IMAGE and the industry sector simulation model FORECAST to analyse the potential contribution of a circular economy in building construction to industry decarbonisation in the European Union until 2050. Both models consistently show that the circular economy can lead to a reduction of final energy demand between 19% and 47% depending on the model and the sub-sector considered. While both models emphasize the role of electrification and hydrogen for a low-carbon industry, they differ regarding the use of bio-based processes: IMAGE favours bio-based processes with carbon capture, where FORECAST prioritizes electrification and hydrogen. Such different routes have profound implications for the development of the energy supply sector. The high uncertainty surrounding industrial decarbonisation scenarios highlights the importance of comparing vastly different models in context of alternative future possibilities and policymaking to improve the understanding of complex systems and prevent overreliance on partial views.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/ae95c6first seen 2026-08-07 05:00:35
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