From Greener growth to sufficiency: Modeling alternative global sustainability pathways
より環境に優しい成長から充足へ：代替的なグローバル持続可能性経路のモデリング (AI 翻訳)
Arthur Lauer, Luis Llases
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、MORDREDモデルを用いて2つの対照的なグローバル持続可能性シナリオ（FST1：グリーン成長、FST5：充足経済）を定量化。FST1は技術的脱炭素化を達成するが資源制約と不平等が残り、気温上昇は2.6℃。FST5は消費の収斂と1.9℃の温暖化安定化を実現し、より堅牢な持続可能性を示す。
English
This study quantifies two contrasting global sustainability scenarios—Greener Growth (FST1) and Sufficiency Economies (FST5)—using the MORDRED model. FST1 achieves rapid technological decarbonization but faces resource constraints and persistent inequality, resulting in 2.6°C warming by 2100. FST5 achieves consumption convergence and stabilizes warming at 1.9°C while reducing material extraction. The sufficiency-oriented transition offers more robust sustainability outcomes.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のグリーン成長戦略（2050年カーボンニュートラル）に対して、本論文は供給サイドの技術革新だけでなく、需要サイドの充足（sufficiency）の重要性を示唆。今後の政策立案に示唆を与える可能性。
In the global GX context
This paper adds to the global debate on green growth versus sufficiency, showing that a sufficiency-oriented transition may achieve more robust climate and equity outcomes. It challenges the dominant green growth paradigm and informs discussions on post-growth economics in climate policy.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a quantitative comparison of green growth vs. sufficiency scenarios, useful for integrated assessment modelers and sustainability scientists.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence that sufficiency-oriented policies could achieve stronger climate and equity outcomes, relevant for long-term strategy design.
📄 Abstract（原文）
This study quantifies two contrasting global sustainability scenarios—FST1: Greener Growth and FST5: Sufficiency Economies—using the MORDRED model. While both pursue high decarbonization without speculative technologies, they embody distinct paradigms: FST1 prioritizes green growth, whereas FST5 centers on sufficiency, redistribution, and well-being within ecological limits. Simulations generate demographic, economic, and biophysical trajectories that complement their qualitative storylines, enabling a plausibility assessment. Results show FST1 achieves rapid technological decarbonization, with a 75% reduction in GHG emissions per unit of output by 2100 and an 83% increase in output over the same period. However, resource and land scarcity constrain growth during the simulation, while existing structural inequalities remain largely unaddressed. As a result, per-capita consumption in the center averages three times that of the periphery, and international climate goals are not achieved, with warming reaching 2.6 °C by 2100. In contrast, FST5 achieves strong convergence in consumption—at €7500 (2019 constant prices)—and mortality rates across regions and classes, stabilizing warming at 1.9 °C by 2100 while reducing material and water extraction and pressures on land systems. At the same time, strong decarbonization increases the renewable sector's share of global resource extraction. Both scenarios appear stable beyond the qualitative storyline's end in 2075, although FST1′s greater environmental pressure and inequality pose long-term stability risks. Sensitivity analyses show that plausibility depends on assumptions about climate sensitivity and land and labor productivity growth. This study underscores the value of integrating qualitative narratives with quantitative modeling and highlights that sufficiency-oriented transitions may offer more robust sustainability outcomes.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2026.101157first seen 2026-06-22 04:46:35
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