A new approach to determine national greenhouse gas budgets

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework for translating global carbon budgets into national GHG budgets, useful for climate policy research.

🏢実務担当者:Offers a basis for understanding how national GHG budgets are derived, which can inform corporate climate strategy and reporting alignment.

🏛政策担当者:Presents a science-based approach for setting NDCs and evaluating long-term climate strategies, relevant for international climate negotiations.

Abstract We propose a new approach to determine national greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets that are collectively consistent with the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement and compatible with the accounting method of national GHG inventories. Our approach is designed to bridge global mitigation assessments and national GHG inventory accounting, enabling fair and transparent nationally determined contributions aligned with a given temperature goal. It is flexible, allowing the use of different equity principles and timeframes. GHG budgets are based on a fair share of the allowable warming contributions of GHG emissions. The approach translates the CO 2 -warming-equivalent GHG budget to be compatible with national GHG inventories by applying adjustment terms for non-CO 2 GHG emissions and anthropogenic emissions from land use, land-use change, and the forestry (LULUCF) sector. The adjustment term for non-CO 2 GHGs equals the bias introduced to estimate CO 2 -warming-equivalent emissions using Global Warming Potentials. The adjustment term for emissions in the LULUCF sector equals the projected indirect effects on managed lands due to climate change and CO 2 fertilization. These adjustments can be made either at the global or national level, leading to different national GHG budgets, depending on the country’s mix of non-CO 2 GHG emissions and projected indirect effects. We demonstrate this by showing that Finland’s GHG budget is much larger if the adjustments are made at the global level compared to the national level, resulting from high non-CO 2 GHG emissions and indirect effects. Nationally adjusted GHG budgets are consistent with countries’ fair share of warming contributions, but GHG budgets with global-level adjustments are less sensitive to modelling uncertainty in indirect effects and scenario uncertainty of national non-CO 2 GHG emissions. Our approach helps improve the Global Stocktake of Nationally Determined Contributions and assess the long-term climate strategies of the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement.

• crossref https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae9628first seen 2026-08-07 05:56:25