複合危機の時代における開発戦略

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a macro-level framework linking climate resilience, industrial policy, and digital infrastructure, useful for research on development economics and energy transition.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights opportunities in clean energy, mineral processing, and resilient infrastructure projects in emerging markets, relevant for corporate strategy and investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Offers a policy blueprint for integrating climate adaptation and industrial development, with specific financing mechanisms that could inform national strategies.

The monograph argues that the Global South has entered a structural break in its development trajectory, driven by an interlocking polycrisis of climate extremes, sovereign debt distress, geoeconomic fragmentation, and rapid AI-driven labor displacement. Traditional linear growth models—centered on fossil‑powered industrialization and export‑assembly manufacturing—are no longer viable. The document proposes a new development paradigm built on adaptive resilience , clean energy sovereignty , domestic industrial value capture , and digital public infrastructure . Across twelve analytical chapters, the monograph demonstrates—using empirical figures and cross‑regional data—that climate thermodynamics, infrastructure failure curves, battery storage cost deflation, mineral beneficiation multipliers, regenerative agritech, sponge metropolis engineering, and AI‑augmented vocational training collectively form a coherent strategic architecture for 21st‑century convergence. It shows, for example, that “upgrading design standards to climate‑resilient specifications… imposes a modest upfront capital expenditure premium of 8% to 12%” while preventing “35% to 54% of total asset value” in avoided losses (Chapter 2) . Likewise, domestic mineral refining multiplies national value capture by “5x to 14x per metric ton” compared to raw ore exports (Chapter 4) . The strategy centers on five sovereign pillars: Decentralized clean electrification to eliminate fossil‑import vulnerability and achieve 98%+ industrial power reliability. Green industrial upgrading through mandatory domestic refining of critical minerals and clean‑powered manufacturing clusters. Agrarian shock absorption using solar micro‑drip irrigation, biochar, inoculants, and AI agronomy to close 40–70% yield gaps. Resilient urban systems via sponge‑city infrastructure that reduces catastrophic flood losses by 65–75%. Digital public infrastructure (identity, payments, data exchange) to collapse transaction costs, expand financial inclusion, and eliminate fiscal leakages. The monograph concludes by quantifying a $3.2 trillion annual transition finance requirement for emerging economies and proposes a 2035 Polycrisis Compact that triples multilateral guarantee capacity to crowd in private capital at scale. This blended‑finance architecture—anchored in sovereign digital governance and mission‑oriented industrial policy—aims to convert polycrisis exposure into long‑term economic convergence for five billion people across the Global South.  

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/22644109first seen 2026-09-08 04:13:57 · last seen 2026-09-21 04:14:55