High-resolution projections of carbon neutrality in China: implications for low-carbon territorial space utilization
中国におけるカーボンニュートラルの高解像度予測：低炭素な国土空間利用への示唆 (AI 翻訳)
Mengqing Cui, Yuping Bai, Shuting Xue, Xiaoxi Xia, Yecui Hu, X Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
この研究は、STIRPATモデルとCMIP6気候モデルを用いて、2020～2060年の中国の炭素排出・吸収量を高解像度で予測した。シナリオ分析の結果、SSP1-2.6シナリオでは2026年に排出量がピークを迎え、炭素吸収源が人為排出の最大46.66%を相殺できる可能性が示された。森林が炭素吸収の約半分を占め、北西部の一部を除くほとんどの省が純排出源となることがわかった。低炭素な国土空間の最適化が中国の「ダブルカーボン」目標達成に重要であると結論付けている。
English
This study uses STIRPAT and CMIP6 models to project China's carbon emissions and sinks at high resolution from 2020-2060 under SSP-RCP scenarios. Results show emissions peak in 2026 under SSP1-2.6, with carbon sinks offsetting up to 46.66% of anthropogenic emissions by 2060. Forests account for ~46.5% of sink capacity. Most provinces remain net emitters except northwestern ones. The findings underscore the need for low-carbon territorial space optimization to support China's dual carbon goals.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の国土空間を対象とした研究だが、日本でも森林・農地等の炭素吸収源の活用や地域別排出特性の分析手法は、日本のカーボンニュートラル戦略や国土利用計画に示唆を与える。特にSSBJやTCFD対応における自然資本・土地利用の位置づけにも関連する。
In the global GX context
While focused on China, this study's high-resolution spatial approach to carbon neutrality and land-use optimization offers a methodology applicable to other countries' territorial climate strategies, including Japan's. It highlights the role of forest and cropland sinks, relevant to global nature-based solutions and carbon accounting frameworks like TCFD and ISSB.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Useful for those studying carbon neutrality pathways and land-use modeling techniques.
🏢実務担当者:Land-use planners and local governments can use the spatial emission patterns to inform low-carbon zoning policies.
🏛政策担当者:China-specific but the methodology can inform other nations' territorial carbon planning.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Formulating low-carbon optimization strategies for territorial space is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality and addressing climate change. This study employed the STIRPAT model and CMIP6 ESMs to simulate China's carbon emissions and carbon sinks from 2020 to 2060 under SSP-RCP scenarios, with carbon sinks measured using NEP, and explored the viability of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. It further analyzed the NEP-based carbon sink carrying capacity of different land use/cover types and the spatiotemporal patterns of net carbon emissions at high spatial resolution. Results indicate that carbon emissions peak in 2026 under SSP1–2.6 and in 2036 under SSP5–8.5. Under all scenarios, carbon sink capacity increases slightly, with forest, cropland, and grassland as the main contributors. Forest accounts for an average of 46.53% of carbon sink capacity. The greatest carbon neutrality potential occurs under SSP1–2.6, where carbon sinks can offset up to 46.66% of anthropogenic emissions by 2060. Most provinces will remain net emitters, except for several northwestern provinces. Provinces near southeastern coastal urban agglomerations constitute the core emission zones, especially those adjacent to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Therefore, the development of low-carbon territorial space is a key task for China's future. These findings highlight the importance of low-carbon territorial space optimization for supporting China's “dual carbon” goals and sustainable territorial space utilization.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115262first seen 2026-07-26 05:12:20
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