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Energy Transition, Green Investment, and Structural Transformation in Algeria: A Green Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model

アルジェリアにおけるエネルギー転換、グリーン投資、構造変革:グリーン・ストック・フロー整合マクロ経済モデル (AI 翻訳)

ZENAGUI SA

Research Squareプレプリント2026-07-22#エネルギー転換経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: cross_sector
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-10439526/v1
原典: https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-10439526/v1

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本論文は、アルジェリア向けに開発されたグリーン・ストック・フロー整合(G-SFC)マクロ経済モデルを提示。炭素税、グリーン投資基金、再生可能エネルギー部門を統合し、5つの政策シミュレーションを実施。段階的炭素税と再エネ投資の組み合わせが中期的な多様化と雇用創出に有効であると示唆。短期的にはインフレ圧力が生じる可能性がある。

English

This paper develops a Green Stock-Flow Consistent macroeconomic model for Algeria, incorporating carbon taxation, a sovereign green investment fund, and renewable energy. Five policy simulations show that a phased carbon tax combined with targeted renewable investment yields medium-run diversification and employment gains, albeit with short-run inflationary pressure.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本への直接的な関連性は低いが、資源国におけるエネルギー転換モデルとして参考になる。炭素税と再エネ投資の組み合わせは、日本のエネルギー政策にも示唆を与える可能性がある。

In the global GX context

This paper provides a rare macro-model of energy transition in a hydrocarbon-exporting economy. The G-SFC framework offers insights for other resource-dependent countries and contributes to the literature on green fiscal policy, which is relevant for global climate finance discussions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a country-level G-SFC model applicable to oil-dependent economies.

🏢実務担当者:Offers simulation results that can inform green investment and carbon pricing strategies in similar contexts.

🏛政策担当者:Simulations show trade-offs between short-term inflation and long-term diversification, useful for policy design in resource-dependent countries.

📄 Abstract(原文)

<title>Abstract</title> <p>This paper develops a Green Stock-Flow Consistent (G-SFC) macroeconomic model tailored to the structural features of Algeria, an open economy characterised by deep hydrocarbon dependence, a nascent renewable energy sector, and persistent unemployment. Building on the canonical GodleyLavoie stock- ow-consistent framework and the ecological extensions of Dafermos, Nikolaidi, and Galanis, we integrate a carbon taxation mechanism, a sovereign green investment fund, and a renewable energy sector into a coherent multi-sectoral accounting struc ture for the period 20052025. The model captures energy substitution dynamics, productivity spillovers from green capital accumulation, labour market adjustment, and external balance constraints speci c to hydrocarbon-exporting economies. We calibrate the model using annual data from the World Bank, the International Energy Agency, the Banque d’AlgØrie, and the O ce National des Statistiques, and subject it to ve policy simulations: (i) carbon tax intro duction, (ii) fossil fuel subsidy removal, (iii) accelerated solar investment, (iv) a green industrial policy package, and (v) green bond nancing. Simulation results suggest that a phased car bon tax combined with targeted renewable investment can generate medium-run diversi cation gains, employment creation, and reduced external vulnerability, albeit at the cost of short-run in ationary pressure. The paper contributes a novel country-level G-SFC application for the MENA region and o ers quantitative guidance for Algeria’s ongoing energy transition strategy. JEL Classication: E12; E17; O13; Q43; Q48; Q54; O55</p>

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