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ガーナ統合アルミ産業向けオボタン300MW原子力発電所のFINPLAN分析

A FINPLAN Analysis of a 300 MW Nuclear Plant at Obotan for Ghana's Integrated Aluminium Industry (原題)

Betty Dufie Owusu

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-10-02#エネルギー転換経営インパクト: 資金調達対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.23108503
原典: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23108503

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

ガーナのアルミ産業近代化に必要な産業規模の低炭素電力を、オボタンの300MW原子力発電で賄う事例をFINPLANで財務評価した。均衡前提では株主NPVは正でIRR16.53%、2033年に初配当となる。実現性は電力料金に最も左右され、低料金では価値が負に転じ配当が1年遅れる。燃料費や輸出信用金利は収益の強弱を変えるが実現性は覆さない。

English

This paper uses the FINPLAN model to appraise an illustrative 300 MW nuclear plant at Obotan as industrial low-carbon power for Ghana's aluminium modernization. Under balanced assumptions the project is viable: positive shareholder NPV of GHS1,734 million, IRR of 16.53%, and a first dividend in 2033. Viability hinges most on the electricity tariff, with lower tariffs turning value negative; fuel cost and export-credit rates affect return strength but not viability.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本企業には直接の接点は薄いが、脱炭素電源の長期調達と産業競争力の両立という論点は、日本の電力調達・PPA設計やGX推進の議論に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Adds a developing-economy, industrial-decarbonization financing case to global transition-finance scholarship, showing how tariff design and concessional export credit determine bankability of low-carbon industrial power—relevant to transition finance and just-transition debates beyond the OECD.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:FINPLAN型財務モデルで脱炭素電源の実現性と料金感応度を評価する手法の一事例として参考になる。

🏢実務担当者:低炭素電力の長期調達契約や料金設計が産業部門の投資回収に与える影響を理解する材料になる。

🏛政策担当者:産業用低炭素電源の実現性には長期料金枠組みと concessional 輸出信用の設計が鍵となる点を示す。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Executive Summary Key Findings Ghana’s ambition to modernize the aluminium industry creates an electricity problem. Moving from bauxite extraction towards alumina refining, higher VALCO utilisation and downstream manufacturing needs reliable, low-carbon power at industrial scale. This paper tests an illustrative 300 MW nuclear power at Obotan as an industrial-power case. Under the balanced FINPLAN assumptions the project is financially viable. Shareholder NPV is positive at GHS1,734.227 million and IRR is 16.53%, and the first dividend of GHS738.488 million is paid in 2033 and rises every year thereafter. Viability depends most on the electricity tariff. At the lower tariffs modelled, the project turns value-negative and the first dividend slips a year, while higher tariffs raise the return and bring dividends earlier. Fuel cost and the export-credit rate change the strength of the return but do not overturn viability across the ranges tested. Recommendations 1. The Ministry of Energy and Green Transition and the Public Utilities Regulatory Commission should develop a long-tariff framework that protects the project’s viability while maintaining competitiveness. 2. The Ministry of Finance should prioritise concessional, long-tenor export-credit financing and assess proposed financing terms against their effect on shareholder returns. 3. The Ministry of Energy and Green Transition should require the FINPLAN model to be updated and used as a financial appraisal tool throughout project development. 4. Nuclear Power Ghana should establish a long-term nuclear fuel procurement and cost-management strategy.

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