エネルギー転換におけるクリーンエネルギー技術のスケールアップに関する展望
Perspectives on scaling up clean energy technologies in the energy transition (原題)
Peter Lund
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、マクロの費用主導型技術普及モデルとミクロの事業収益性モデルを統合した新たな分析枠組みを構築し、クリーンエネルギー技術の普及が投資行動と経済的要因にどう左右されるかを検証した。普及率が高まるにつれ成長は技術・経済要因から社会・システム要因へ移行し、太陽光発電が世界電力の約20%に達する時点が転換点となる。持続的スケールアップには十分な事業利益率と再投資が不可欠で、長期の公的支援は過剰供給を招くリスクがあると指摘する。
English
This paper builds a novel multi-model framework combining macro cost-driven technology diffusion with micro business profitability modeling to examine how economic drivers and investment behavior shape clean energy scaling. Growth shifts from technoeconomic to systemic and socioeconomic factors around the inflection point (e.g., solar PV at ~20% of global electricity). Sustained scaling requires adequate business margins and reinvestment, while prolonged public support risks oversupply.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX推進では、再エネ導入拡大と企業の投資判断・収益性の両立が課題であり、本論文の投資中心モデルは政策設計や企業の事業性評価に示唆を与える。特に太陽光の普及転換点や公的支援の副作用は、日本のFIT/FIP制度や電力システム改革の議論に直結する。
In the global GX context
This work informs global transition finance and policy design by showing that scaling clean energy requires not just cost declines but profitable business models and careful calibration of public support to avoid oversupply. It adds a systems perspective relevant to ISSB/TCFD-aligned transition planning and national decarbonization strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:技術普及と事業収益性を統合したモデルは、エネルギー転換研究における学際的アプローチの重要性を示す。
🏢実務担当者:再エネ事業の収益性確保と再投資の重要性を理解し、長期の市場飽和リスクを考慮した投資計画に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:公的支援の期間と設計が市場の健全性に与える影響を踏まえ、過剰供給を避ける政策調整が求められる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Carbon neutrality requires massive, rapid scaling up of clean energy technologies, with economic factors playing a central role in market uptake. We investigate how economic drivers and investment behaviors affect technology growth using a novel, multi-model analytical framework. By combining macro-level cost-driven technology diffusion with micro-level business profitability modeling, this framework captures realistic, investment-centric decision-making. Cost-competitiveness-dependent, varying technology adoption rates realistically reflect market growth and saturation, indicating a declining adoption rate as market share increases. Growth is initially influenced by technical and technoeconomic factors, but shifts toward complex systemic, social, and socioeconomic factors around the inflection point (halfway to saturation). This transition triggers, for instance, when solar PV share reaches around 20% of global electricity. At higher market shares, cost-competitiveness encompasses both basic technology costs and system-level limitations, better captured by the value-adjusted levelized cost of electricity than pure cost. Furthermore, micro-level profitability analysis underlines that sustained scaling up requires adequate business margins and profits. Growth can be accelerated through higher sales margins, reinvesting more profits into investments, reducing the time cash is tied up in sales, etc. Public support speeds up market entry but risks creating unhealthy competition and oversupply if sustained too long. Future technologies benefit from policies supporting a shorter development phase followed by rapid adoption. Finally, insights for future scaling up emphasize low costs, profitability, granularity, modularity, system flexibility, learning and scale effects, and technology-push versus market-pull trade-off. This multitude of factors stresses an integrated, multidisciplinary systems view to accelerate scaling up of clean energy.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2026.128775first seen 2026-09-16 04:44:04
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