Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles in Road Transport: Multi-Objective Optimization of Total Cost of Ownership and Well-to-Wheel Emissions

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Novel dynamic multi-objective framework combining TCO and well-to-wheel emissions with learning curves and carbon pricing.

🏢実務担当者:Useful for fleet operators assessing hydrogen vehicles; provides break-even years and cost comparison.

🏛政策担当者:Provides evidence for targeted incentives (carbon-weighted tolls, capital grants) to support hydrogen mobility.

Traditional techno-economic assessments of zero-emission mobility frequently rely on static Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) models that fail to capture the concurrent evolution of economic and environmental parameters. To address this research gap, this study develops a novel dynamic multi-objective optimization framework that jointly assesses TCO and Well-to-Wheel (WTW) emissions across the period 2026–2060, capturing the non-linear trade-offs between cost minimization and lifecycle decarbonization. The model developed compares light-duty hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) with diesel, petrol, and battery-electric vehicles (EVs), incorporating time-varying Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) learning curves, fuel price trajectories, carbon pricing effects, and emissions-decay pathways. Hydrogen break-even prices are computed annually against each competing technology to identify the market conditions under which FCEVs become cost competitive. The results show that light-duty hydrogen FCEVs face a substantial entry barrier in 2026, with a TCO of approximately €275,000, far above diesel, petrol and EV alternatives. However, their relative competitiveness improves over time as hydrogen production costs decline and fossil-fuel vehicle costs increase due to the EU ETS2 and Eurovignette CO2 surcharges. The analysis identifies two key inflection points, that is, light-duty hydrogen FCEVs become more cost effective than petrol vehicles in 2037 and reach parity with EVs in 2046. In emissions terms, light-duty FCEVs occupy a strong position on the low-WTW frontier, while EVs combine the lowest TCO with similarly favorable emissions performance. To bridge the intermediate cost-parity gap and mitigate infrastructure lock-in risks, targeted policy measures, such as carbon-weighted road toll exemptions, upstream fuel-tax subsidies under the EU ETS2 framework, and capital grants for localized commercial fleet refueling units, are essential to accelerate early-stage market industrialization and secure the economic viability of hydrogen mobility.

• semanticscholar https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/19/14/3344/pdf?version=1784119421first seen 2026-07-20 05:18:26