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中国の石炭水素化＋CCUS経路：技術経済分析と移行戦略

China’s coal-to-hydrogen coupled with CCUS pathway: a technical and economic analysis and transition strategies (原題)

Ruoqing Liao

ジャーナル2026-10-19#水素Origin: CN経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.1117/12.3131057
原典: https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3131057

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

中国の石炭水素化（ガス化・熱分解・コークス炉ガス）を比較し、大規模水素供給にはガス化＋CCUSが不可欠と示す。炭素価格と再エネ電力コストに基づきグレー・ブルー・グリーン水素を評価し、ブルー水素は2030年まで競争力を持つが、その後はグリーン水素のコスト低下でCCUS付き石炭水素はバックアップ・調整役に移行すると予測する。商業化リスク（コスト・認証・規制・座礁資産）と対策も提示する。

English

This study compares China's coal gasification, pyrolysis and coke oven gas routes for hydrogen, finding gasification plus CCUS essential for large-scale low-carbon supply. Evaluating gray, blue and green hydrogen against carbon prices and renewable electricity costs, it projects blue hydrogen stays competitive to 2030, after which cheaper green hydrogen pushes coal-to-hydrogen with CCUS into backup and peak-shaving roles. It also maps commercialization risks—cost, revenue, certification, regulation, stranded assets—and proposes mitigation strategies.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

中国の移行期水素戦略は、日本の水素社会推進やCCUS実装、アジアの水素サプライチェーン構想を考える上で参照価値が高い。ブルー水素の競争力期間や認証・規制課題は、日本の水素政策・カーボンクレジット設計にも示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

Offers a transition-pathway template for emerging economies weighing blue versus green hydrogen under carbon pricing, relevant to global hydrogen certification and Article 6 discussions. Its treatment of stranded-asset and certification risk informs ISSB-aligned transition planning for hard-to-abate sectors.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:炭素価格と再エネコストの感度分析により、ブルー/グリーン水素の競争力転換点を定量化する枠組みを提供する。

🏢実務担当者:水素調達やCCUS投資判断において、2030年前後の経路転換リスクと座礁資産リスクを織り込む際の参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:水素認証制度・動的補助金・インフラ調整の設計に、移行期のブルー水素活用と段階的退出の視点を与える。

📄 Abstract（原文）

Under the dual-carbon objectives of China and the rapid development of the hydrogen industry, coal-to-hydrogen is the primary way to produce hydrogen, while green hydrogen is still restricted by factors such as cost, storage, transportation and scale-up. Therefore, coal-to-hydrogen combined with CCUS is an important transitional route from gray to green hydrogen. This research examines the policies and technologies of China's coal-to-hydrogen, comparing the coal gasification, coal pyrolysis and coke oven gas methods. It is found that coal gasification is still significant for large-scale hydrogen production but needs CCUS to decrease the emission. Pre-combustion capture is suitable for coal gasification, whereas the utilization and storage methods like enhanced oil recovery have higher commercial feasibility at present. According to the carbon prices and the costs of green hydrogen electricity, the study evaluates the gray, blue and green hydrogen routes. Blue hydrogen is expected to remain competitive before 2030, but after this time, the decreasing costs of green hydrogen will make coal-to-hydrogen with CCUS tend to play backup and flexible peak-shaving roles. In addition, the research points out the commercialization risks, including costs, revenues, certification, regulation and stranded assets, and suggests solutions such as diversified incomes, digital management, flexible investments, dynamic subsidies, improved carbon certification and coordinated infrastructure construction.

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