イタリア–チュニジアELMED連系を通じた再エネ電力余剰の交換：探索的マーケットカップリング分析

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:越境連系と再エネ余剰融通を評価するマーケットカップリングモデルの簡潔な実例として参照できる。

🏢実務担当者:越境送電・再エネ調達を検討する事業者にとって、余剰融通の時間帯と転換点の目安を掴む材料になる。

🏛政策担当者:広域連系政策や再エネ拡大目標の設計において、純輸出入転換の閾値という政策的論点を提示する。

Abstract The Mediterranean region is emerging as a strategic area for energy transition, where cross-border electricity interconnections can play a key role in integrating renewable energy resources and strengthening Euro-Mediterranean cooperation. In this context, the ELMED interconnection between Italy and Tunisia serves as a significant case study for analyzing how cross-border electricity exchanges can facilitate the integration of renewable energy surpluses between power systems with different demand profiles and resource availability. This work develops a quantitative market coupling model to simulate electricity exchanges between Italy and Tunisia, focusing on renewable energy surpluses, zonal prices, gas consumption and CO₂ emissions. The analysis is carried out on a representative summer day in different scenarios of renewable (photovoltaic and wind) capacity expansion on both sides of the interconnection. The findings indicate that, under the analyzed configuration and stylized assumptions, ELMED is activated when renewable generation surplus in one country coincides with residual demand in the other, with electricity flows concentrated mainly during the middle of the day. The analysis also identifies an indicative interpolated transition value of approximately 6.16 GW of Tunisian PV capacity, corresponding to about 7.92 GW of total PV and wind capacity under the considered configuration, beyond which Tunisia shifts from being a net importer to a net exporter of renewable electricity to Italy. This transition is associated with a comparative reduction in natural gas consumption and CO₂ emissions in the importing system. Furthermore, the results suggest that, under simplified assumptions, cross-border interconnections such as ELMED can support the integration of renewable energy surpluses and reduce reliance on thermal generation when complementary production and demand conditions exist. These findings should be interpreted as exploratory outcomes of the proposed model rather than as generalizable estimates of actual system behavior. Nevertheless, this analysis highlights the potential contribution of cross-border electricity interconnections to renewable energy integration, decarbonization, and broader energy transition objectives consistent with the principles of SDG 7.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s41207-026-01305-7first seen 2026-11-08 04:44:31 · last seen 2026-11-13 04:52:28