中国の再生可能エネルギー移行における新エネルギー電池用重要鉱物の持続可能な開発
Sustainable Development of Critical Minerals for New Energy Batteries for the Renewable Energy Transition in China (原題)
Xiaoxiao Tan, Xiangyang Xu, Hao Liu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国の新エネルギー電池に必要なリチウム、コバルト、ニッケル、マンガンの需要を2010〜2060年にわたり動的物質フロー分析とシナリオ分析で予測。2060年には最大需要が大幅に増加し、リチウムの代替率は回収シナリオにより最大85.3%に達する。カスケード利用の需要は退役電池量より低く、23%以上の利用率で市場需要を満たせる。標準化されたリサイクルシステム構築と過剰能力防止のための厳格な参入承認を提言。
English
This study forecasts demand for lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese for China's new energy batteries from 2010 to 2060 using dynamic material flow analysis and scenario analysis. Demand is projected to rise significantly by 2060, with lithium substitution rates reaching up to 85.3% under different recovery scenarios. A cascade utilization rate above 23% could theoretically meet all relevant market demand. The authors recommend standardized recycling systems and strict entry approvals to prevent overcapacity.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の重要鉱物需給分析は、日本企業のバッテリーサプライチェーン戦略や資源外交に示唆を与える。日本でも蓄電池の資源確保が課題であり、リサイクルシステム構築や国際協力の重要性が示唆される。
In the global GX context
This study provides quantitative evidence on critical mineral demand for the energy transition, relevant to global supply chain resilience and circular economy policies. It offers insights for international cooperation on recycling standards and resource security, complementing global efforts on sustainable battery value chains.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a comprehensive framework for critical mineral demand forecasting and recycling potential, useful for material flow analysis and energy transition research.
🏢実務担当者:Highlights the importance of battery recycling and cascade utilization for securing critical minerals, informing corporate supply chain and circular economy strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Offers evidence for policies on critical mineral supply security, recycling infrastructure, and overcapacity prevention, relevant for resource-dependent economies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
As critical minerals required for the production of new energy batteries, the demand forecasts and trends for Li, Co, Ni, and Mn are of crucial importance for ensuring the energy transition and China’s sustainable development. This study has developed a comprehensive analytical framework, combining dynamic material flow analysis, stock-driven forecasting, and scenario analysis to conduct a life-cycle assessment of the critical mineral resources (2010–2060). (1) Retrospective estimates show that in 2024, demand for Li, Co, Ni, and Mn reached 117 kt, 79 kt, 78 kt, and 45 kt, respectively. By 2060, the maximum demand for these minerals is projected to rise to 651 kt, 1090 kt, 1080 kt, and 757 kt, respectively. (2) Li is the mineral with the highest demand. Under different recovery scenarios, the lithium substitution rates reach 55.4%, 68.3%, and 85.3%, respectively. Given that the demand in cascade utilisation is far lower than the volume of retired new energy vehicle batteries, a cascade utilisation rate exceeding 23% would theoretically suffice to meet the entire relevant market demand. To secure the supply of critical minerals for energy batteries, this study suggests accelerating the construction of standardised recycling systems and implementing strict entry approvals to prevent overcapacity.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18179005first seen 2026-09-06 05:15:48
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