The Green Peace Dividend: The Effects of Militarisation on Emissions and the Green Transition
緑の平和配当：軍事化が排出量とグリーン移行に与える影響 (AI 翻訳)
Balázs Markó
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、軍事支出の増加が温室効果ガス排出を増加させ、グリーン移行を阻害することを実証する。米国のデータを用いた分析により、軍事支出ショックは総排出量0.9～2%増、排出原単位1%増、グリーンパテント10～25%減を引き起こし、再生可能エネルギー投資をクラウドアウトする可能性がある。恒久的な軍事支出倍増は気候被害として米GDPの0.05～1.81%に相当する。
English
This paper shows that military spending increases emissions and hinders the green transition. Using local projections and a dynamic production network model for the US, it finds that military spending shocks raise total emissions by 0.9–2% and emission intensity by 1%, while reducing green patenting by 10–25% and potentially crowding out renewable investment. The climate damages from a permanent doubling of US military spending could reach 0.05–1.81% of GDP per year.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本論文は、防衛費増大と2050年カーボンニュートラル目標を両立させる日本のGX政策に重要な示唆を与える。財政配分における防衛とグリーン投資のトレードオフが排出量に直結することを示しており、政策担当者は軍事増強の炭素フットプリントを考慮する必要がある。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global understanding of how military expenditures impact climate goals. It provides causal evidence that military spending crowds out green innovation and renewable investment, which is relevant for countries with large defense budgets (USA, China, NATO allies). It highlights a potential conflict between national security and climate security, with implications for transition finance and climate policy integration.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides novel causal evidence linking military spending to emissions and green innovation using multiple empirical strategies.
🏢実務担当者:Sustainability teams can use these findings to advocate for reallocating public budgets from defense to green investments.
🏛政策担当者:Defense and climate ministries should coordinate budget allocations to avoid undermining climate targets.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This paper argues that military buildups lead to a significant rise in greenhouse gas emissions and can disrupt the green transition. Identifying military spending shocks, I use local projections to show that a percentage point rise in the military spending share leads to a 0.9–2% rise in total emissions, as well as a 1% rise in emission intensity, depending on the economy’s overall emission intensity. Using a dynamic production network model calibrated for the US, I find that a permanent shock of the same size would increase total emissions by between 0.25% and 1.38%, and emission intensity by between 0.12% and 1.06%. The empirical analysis tentatively suggests that green patenting may be reduced by 10–25% following such a shock, and the model suggests that investment in renewables could be crowded out by defence spending under certain circumstances, hindering the energy transition. I show in a directed technical change model that crowding out green innovation could result in the growth rate - not just the level - of emissions becoming higher. These effects can significantly raise climate damages. Depending on the social cost of carbon and the composition of a military spending shock, I estimate that permanently doubling the military spending share in the US in 2017 (equal to 3.3% of GDP) would have led to climate damages equivalent to between 0.05–1.81% of US GDP per year.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-026-01089-yfirst seen 2026-06-18 04:42:13
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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。