中国四川省の交通部門におけるシナリオ駆動型カーボンピーク経路：統合LMDI-STIRPATフレームワーク
Scenario-Driven Carbon Peak Pathways for Transportation in Sichuan Province, China: An Integrated LMDI-STIRPAT Framework (原題)
(著者不明)
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国四川省の交通部門の炭素排出動態と将来経路を分析。2005～2020年の排出量を推計し、LMDI分解とSTIRPATシナリオ分析により、低炭素発展シナリオでは2035年頃にピークを迎え、排出削減効果が最も高いことを示した。地域特有の電化、都市化、エネルギー転換、低炭素物流の重要性を強調。
English
This study analyzes transportation carbon emissions in Sichuan Province, China, using LMDI decomposition and STIRPAT-based scenarios. Emissions grew from 12.47 Mt in 2005 to 24.02 Mt in 2020, with peak expected around 2035 under low-carbon scenarios. Highlights region-specific strategies like electrification and cleaner energy for inland regions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の地方省における交通脱炭素の実証分析であり、日本の地域交通政策やカーボンニュートラル戦略に示唆を与える。特に、地域特性を考慮した排出削減経路の設計は、日本の自治体や企業のScope 3対応にも参考になる。
In the global GX context
Provides empirical evidence on regional transportation decarbonization pathways, relevant for global climate policy and corporate Scope 3 accounting. The scenario framework can inform similar analyses in other regions, contributing to the literature on sectoral carbon peaking strategies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Methodological insights into combining LMDI and STIRPAT for sectoral emission projections.
🏢実務担当者:Useful for regional logistics and transport companies to anticipate policy directions and plan low-carbon transitions.
🏛政策担当者:Informs regional carbon peak planning and the design of transport-specific mitigation policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Transportation is a major contributor to carbon emissions, and achieving carbon peaking in this sector is essential for China’s Dual Carbon goals. This study investigates transportation carbon emission dynamics and future pathways in Sichuan Province, a representative western inland region with complex geographical and transport characteristics. A top-down carbon accounting approach was applied to estimate emissions during 2005–2020, while LMDI decomposition and an extended STIRPAT-based scenario framework were employed to analyze historical emission contributions and future trajectories under four scenarios. The results show that transportation carbon emissions increased from 12.47 million tons in 2005 to 24.02 million tons in 2020, with emission growth mainly associated with vehicle expansion and energy consumption, while improvements in energy structure and transport efficiency partially offset this trend. Scenario analysis shows that emissions peak around 2035 under both the Low-Carbon Development and Enhanced Control scenario, with the Low-Carbon Development scenario achieving a substantially lower peak level and stronger mitigation effect compared with other scenarios. The findings highlight the importance of region-specific strategies, including transport electrification, green urbanization, cleaner energy substitution, and low-carbon logistics development, for supporting transportation decarbonization in Sichuan and similar western inland regions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.30955/gnj.08410first seen 2026-09-04 05:00:15
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