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都市CO₂・CH₄排出シナリオ、気温結果、オーバーシュート積分に関するデータセット

Dataset on Urban CO₂ and CH₄ Emissions Scenarios, Temperature Outcomes, and Overshoot Integral (原題)

KILKIS, Siir, Riahi, Keywan, Nicholls, Zebedee, Pratama, Yoga Wienda, Niamir, Leila

Zenodoデータセット2026-08-28#エネルギー転換Origin: Global
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.22147593
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/22147593

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本データセットは、都市部のCO₂・CH₄排出シナリオと気温変化を統合したもので、2つのベースラインと7つの緩和経路（IMP）を5つのシナリオグループと2つの感度ケースで分析している。世界のGHG排出量と地表気温変化の予測を含み、オーバーシュート積分という新指標を提案する。都市の排出削減目標が気温目標達成に果たす役割を定量的に示す。

English

This dataset integrates urban CO₂ and CH₄ emission scenarios with temperature outcomes, covering 2 baselines and 7 mitigation pathways under 5 scenario groups and 2 sensitivity cases. It includes global GHG emissions and surface temperature projections, and introduces a new metric, the overshoot integral. It quantifies the role of city targets in bending the global temperature curve.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の都市部の排出削減目標（ゼロカーボンシティ）の効果を定量的に評価する上で有用。SSBJや自治体の気候変動対策計画の策定に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This dataset provides a framework for assessing the impact of urban mitigation targets on global temperature, relevant for global climate policy and urban sustainability initiatives. It supports the quantification of city-level contributions to Paris Agreement goals.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:都市排出シナリオと気温影響の統合分析手法を提供し、気候モデリング研究に活用できる。

🏢実務担当者:都市の排出削減目標設定や気候リスク評価の参考になる。

🏛政策担当者:都市レベルの緩和策の効果を評価し、国際的な気候政策の形成に寄与する。

📄 Abstract（原文）

This comprehensive dataset is associated with the original research work in a forthcoming article that is titled “ The role of urban areas in mitigation scenarios for bending the global temperature curve .” The dataset contains nine datasheets where the first five contain the urban, non-urban, other, and total CO₂ and CH₄ emissions under the analysed scenarios. The main scenarios are the two baseline (Current Policies and Moderate Action) and seven Illustrative Mitigation Pathway (IMP) scenarios. Each of them is considered under five scenario groups (G1-G5) and two sensitivity cases (S1 and S2), with and without a representation of city targets for CO₂ and/or CH₄ emissions. For example, G1 represents urban emissions within global trends according to the baseline and IMP scenarios without city targets for CO₂ and/or CH₄ emissions. Alternatively, each of the other scenario groups involve various targets, either existing or projections of possibilities for their adoption at mid-century. The two sensitivity cases utilise the percentage of city types by region to differentiate the timing of targets for net-zero CO₂ and minimum CH₄ per capita levels. The differentiated timing of the targets is for the years 2040, 2050, and 2060. The details are provided in the related original research work. The nine datasheets are summarised based on the following descriptions. The datasheets also contain the results at the global level for world greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by GHG species and the median surface air temperature (SAT) change. The 17–83% range as the likely range for the year 2100 based on a 600-member MAGICC v7.5.3 probabilistic ensemble is given subsequently. The last datasheet represents the quantification of the new metric of the overshoot integral in degree-years. Overall, these datasheets are categorized in the domains of urban CO₂ and CH₄ emissions, world GHG emissions, and the surface temperature change, including the overshoot integral, under a total of 63 scenario cases (nine pathways, five scenario groups, and two sensitivity cases). Total annual urban CO₂ and CH₄ emissions under 2 baseline and 7 IMPs in the scenario groups G1-G5 and sensitivity cases S1-S2 over the timeframe 2015-2100; Comparison of urban CO₂ and CH₄ emissions with those under G1 in each of the baseline and IMPs in the timeframe 2015-2100 with non-zero changes after 2025; Total annual non-urban CO₂ and CH₄ emissions under 2 baseline and 7 IMPs in the scenario groups G1-G5 and sensitivity cases S1-S2 over the same timeframe; Total annual other CO₂ and CH₄ emissions under 2 baseline and 7 IMPs in the scenario groups G1-G5 and sensitivity cases S1-S2 over the same timeframe; Total annual world CO₂ and CH₄ emissions under all scenario groups G1-G5 and sensitivity cases S1-S2 over the timeframe 2015-2100 for additional analysis; World GHG emissions data covering 51 GHG species, including CO₂ emissions from energy and industrial processes and AFOLU, over the timeframe 2015-2100; Median values of SAT change over the reference 1850-1900 based on world GHG emissions run in probabilistic mode over 2015-2100, also covering 1950-2014; Results for the year 2100 from the 600-member MAGICC v7.5.3 probabilistic ensemble based on the 17–83% range that is used to define the likely range; Quantification of a new metric, the overshoot integral in degree-years for the 2 baseline and 7 IMPs in the scenario groups G1-G5 and sensitivity cases S1-S2.   In total, the eight datasheets contain a total of 359,336 cells. The dataset should be cited as: Kılkış et al. (2026), Dataset on Urban CO₂ and CH₄ Emissions Scenarios, Temperature Outcomes, and Overshoot Integral (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22147593.

🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース

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gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。