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Simulating Impacts of Climate Change on Young-Aged Forest Succession and Carbon Dynamics

気候変動が若齢林の遷移と炭素動態に与える影響のシミュレーション (AI 翻訳)

Wonhee Cho, Dongwook W. Ko

Forests📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-07-04#気候科学
DOI: 10.3390/f17070794
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/f17070794

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、LANDIS-IIモデルとPnET生理モデルを用いて、若齢林の200年にわたる遷移と炭素動態を気候シナリオ別にシミュレーションした。その結果、気候変動は遷移経路と炭素吸収能を有意に変化させ、標高や初期種組成に依存して効果が異なることを示した。特に亜高山帯種の衰退や空間的不均一性の増大が予測され、森林管理の緊急性を強調している。

English

This study used the LANDIS-II and PnET models to simulate 200 years of forest succession and carbon dynamics in young forests under BAU, RCP45, and RCP85 scenarios. Results show that climate change alters successional pathways and carbon capacity, with effects varying by elevation and species composition. Sub-alpine species decline and spatial heterogeneity increase, highlighting the need for site-specific forest management for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本では森林吸収源を2050年カーボンニュートラル目標に組み込んでおり、本研究成果は若齢林の炭素吸収能の将来予測や管理計画に示唆を与える。ただし、日本の森林生態系に直接適用するには現地パラメータの調整が必要である。

In the global GX context

Globally, young forests are increasingly recognized for their mitigation potential, but their long-term carbon dynamics under climate change are uncertain. This study provides mechanistic insights into how climate scenarios alter forest carbon sequestration, informing natural climate solutions and IPCC assessments.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Forest ecologists and carbon cycle modelers can use these projections to refine models of forest carbon dynamics under climate change.

🏢実務担当者:Forest managers and carbon offset project developers can apply the findings to plan site-specific management for long-term carbon storage.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers can consider these results when designing national greenhouse gas inventories and adaptation strategies for forest sectors.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Young forests are recognized as important contributors to climate change mitigation due to their high productivity. However, their structural simplicity and transitional nature render them ecologically vulnerable to long-term climatic stress. We explored the long-term responses of young forests to climate change by applying the LANDIS-II forest landscape model coupled with a PnET-based physiological model to simulate 200 years of forest succession and carbon dynamics. Simulations were conducted under three climate scenarios (BAU, RCP45, and RCP85) to evaluate changes in aboveground biomass (AGB), carbon storage, and carbon absorption across elevation gradients. The results revealed that climate change significantly altered successional pathways and carbon capacity, with effects varying with elevation and initial species composition. Predominant species such as Quercus mongolica maintained dominance under the RCP45 and RCP85 scenarios across all elevations, whereas shade-tolerant mid and understory species showed suppressed growth. Sub-alpine species showed prominent declines in AGB, particularly in the RCP85 scenario. These divergent responses increased the spatial heterogeneity of forest productivity and reduced the predictability of forest carbon dynamics over time. Our findings emphasize the uncertainty of predicting forest development and carbon sequestration in young forests under future climatic conditions. They highlight the urgent need to plan forest management strategies incorporating site-specific ecological characteristics, promote successional advancement, and maintain functional stability for effective climate adaptation and mitigation.

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