実効的炭素価格の規律実践：台湾の炭素費と排出量取引制度における約束・調整・実効炭素価格（2026年基準年）

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:実効炭素価格の測定手法と調整の規律フレームを、各国制度比較研究に応用できる。

🏢実務担当者:内部炭素価格や輸出コスト試算は名目税率ではなく実効支払価格に基づくべきという実務的示唆を得られる。

🏛政策担当者:炭素定価の調整を検証可能にするトリガー・事前規則・期待効果・実効価格への純効果の4要素を制度設計に組み込むべき。

Taiwan began levying its carbon fee in 2025, and its first payments were collected in 2026. The rules, rate-review records and approved self-reduction plans are publicly available, but no record yet compares, over time, what the government committed to with what it subsequently did. This paper provides that record for the carbon fee and for the forthcoming emissions trading system (ETS). It defines three forms of discipline: timing (whether dated commitments occur as stated), threshold (whether the conditions attached to discounts are enforced) and direction (whether the net effect of simultaneous parameter changes matches the stated direction). It also proposes four elements that make an adjustment legible: trigger, the prior rule modified, expected effect, and net effect on the effective carbon price. A ledger of 31 commitments and adjustments, each tagged with source tier and specificity, shows that long-term commitments in high-tier documents rarely carry dates; that public data stop at plan approval and do not yet cover compliance audits; and that none of the six rule adjustments since the fee's launch quantifies its effect on the price actually paid. Following the method of Canada’s independent assessment of carbon pricing, the paper estimates an average effective rate of TWD 32.0–34.8 per tonne, about one-tenth of the TWD 300 headline rate, and an emissions-weighted marginal rate of roughly TWD 20–39. Discounts therefore lower both marginal and average prices, and abatement incentives rest mainly on whether plan targets are enforced. For covered firms, internal carbon prices and export-cost estimates should rest on the price actually paid rather than the headline rate. Under the European Commission's draft rules on carbon price paid in third countries, a steel plant with high-leakage status would be able to claim about 0.76% of the second-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price. Comparisons with Switzerland, the EU, Germany, Canada, Korea, Singapore, Japan and Sweden show how adjustments can be written into rules or documented so that they can be verified. The paper closes with six checkpoints for the ETS pilot plan and a list of data whose disclosure would make the record precise. The supplementary CSV contains the full ledger (31 rows) with field definitions; source codes correspond to Appendix C of the paper.

• Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/23308221first seen 2026-10-12 04:17:47 · last seen 2026-10-14 04:34:22