高成長・低炭素：インドにおける2070年純ゼロCO2排出経路
High growth, low carbon: A net-zero CO2 emission by 2070 pathway for India (原題)
Utkarsh Patel, Chen Chris Gong, Clara Bachorz, Johannes Koch, Lavinia Baumstark, Jarusch Muessel, Ricarda Rosemann, Jakob Dürrwächter, Felix Schreyer, Robert Pietzcker, Falko Ueckerdt, Gunnar Luderer
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、REMIND統合評価モデルを用い、インドの高成長軌道（2025-2050年に年6.2%成長）に整合する純ゼロ経路（NZ2070）を提示する。排出量は2035年頃にピーク（4.2GtCO2/年）を迎え、再生可能電力の大規模拡大と石炭火力の段階的削減、電化、グリーン水素・バイオマスが脱炭素の鍵となる。2070年までに暗黙的炭素価格429ドル/tCO2が必要で、追加投資はGDPの年1.4%（約1750億ドル/年）と試算。インドの2035年NDC評価の厳密なベンチマークを提供する。
English
Using the REMIND integrated assessment model calibrated to a high-growth trajectory (6.2% annual GDP growth 2025-2050), this study presents a net-zero pathway (NZ2070) for India. Emissions peak around 2035 at 4.2 Gt CO2/yr before declining, with decarbonization driven by renewable electricity expansion, coal phase-down, electrification, and green hydrogen/biomass for hard-to-abate sectors. Achieving net-zero requires an implicit carbon price of $429/tCO2 by 2070 and additional investments of 1.4% of GDP annually (~$175 billion/yr through 2050). The pathway offers a rigorous benchmark for assessing India's 2035 NDC.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとって、インドの脱炭素経路はサプライチェーン排出（Scope3）や投資先の移行リスク評価に直結する。特に再生可能エネルギー拡大と炭素価格の上昇は、現地生産拠点のエネルギーコストや調達戦略に影響を与える可能性がある。
In the global GX context
This study provides a net-zero-consistent benchmark for India's 2035 NDC, relevant to global stocktake and transition finance discussions. It highlights the scale of investment needed in emerging economies, informing international climate finance and Article 6 cooperation.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:統合評価モデルを用いた高成長下の脱炭素経路分析の手法と結果を提供。
🏢実務担当者:インドにおける炭素価格上昇と再エネ拡大が事業コスト・調達に与える影響を評価する材料。
🏛政策担当者:インドのNDC強化と国際協力の必要性を示す定量的根拠を提供。
📄 Abstract（原文）
India is the third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases and a developing nation whose per-capita GDP is about one-fifth of the global average. To implement the Paris Agreement, India must reconcile its economic ambitions—defined by the Viksit Bharat vision of reaching high-income status—with climate action. Moving beyond standard “middle-of-the-road” (SSP2) growth assumptions, this study presents a novel mitigation scenario using the REMIND integrated assessment model calibrated to a high-growth trajectory (6.2% annual GDP growth over 2025-2050). We compare a Current Policy baseline with a Net-zero scenario (NZ2070) aligned with India’s 2070 net-zero target. In the NZ2070 pathway, emissions peak around 2035 at 4.2 Gt CO2/yr (12.5% above 2025 levels) before declining. Decarbonization hinges on a massive expansion of renewable electricity (generation 8.3 PWh or 84% of total electricity by 2050), a managed phase-down of unabated coal power (peaking at 293 GW in 2030), and extensive electrification. Green hydrogen and biomass emerge as critical solutions for hard-to-abate sectors post-2045. While near-term abatement costs are modest, achieving net-zero requires an implicit carbon price of $429/tCO2 by 2070. Our results demonstrate that India can approach high-income levels while meeting its climate goals, provided near-term investments, amounting to an additional 1.4% of GDP annually (∼$175 billion/yr through 2050) in energy supply sectors, are consistently aligned with long-term targets. This pathway offers a technically rigorous, net-zero-consistent benchmark for assessing India’s recently submitted 2035 Nationally Determined Contribution, and indicates scope to strengthen its near-term ambition.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2026.100279first seen 2026-10-11 04:42:14
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