グローバルサウスのエネルギー転換の政治経済学：国内連合、国家能力、気候金融の構造的制約
The Political Economy of Energy Transitions in the Global South: Domestic Coalitions, State Capacity, and the Structural Constraints of Climate Finance 2. Authors (原題)
Ezekiel Kelly
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
南アフリカ・インド・リチウム三角地帯の比較から、エネルギー転換の進展が国内政治連合と国際金融システム内の国家の位置に左右されると論じる。JETPの42%配分やインド国有企業の化石燃料投資、リチウム価格急落など実証データを示し、気候金融の「額」より「構成と経路」が転換政治を規定すると結論づける。
English
A structured comparison of South Africa, India and the lithium triangle argues that transition outcomes hinge on domestic political settlements and a state's position in the hierarchical international financial system. It shows that the composition and channel of climate finance, not headline volume, shape transition politics, with evidence on JETP allocation, state-owned fossil investment and lithium price collapse.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業が関与するJETPやアジアの石炭移行金融、資源国での調達リスクを理解する上で示唆が大きい。SSBJ・移行計画の実効性を考える際の政治経済的制約として参照価値がある。
In the global GX context
Directly relevant to global transition finance debates (JETP, GFANZ, MDB reform) and to ISSB/CSRD disclosure on transition plans, showing how sovereign fiscal constraints and political settlements mediate climate finance effectiveness.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候金融の実効性を政治経済・国家能力の観点から分析する比較枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:新興国での再エネ・移行プロジェクトのカントリーリスクと資金調達チャネル設計に示唆を与える。
🏛政策担当者:JETPや二国間気候金融の設計において、被支援国の財政空間と政治連合を考慮する必要性を示す。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Why do energy transitions in the Global South advance unevenly when renewable technologies are cost-competitive and international climate finance is on offer? I argue that outcomes depend on the interaction of two variables: the political settlement that determines whether incumbent fossil fuel interests are compensated, bypassed or displaced, and the position of the state within a hierarchical international financial system, which conditions whether external finance widens or narrows fiscal space. Using a structured, focused comparison of South Africa, India and the lithium-producing states of Chile, Argentina and Bolivia, based on official programme, audit, statistical and regulatory records, I identify three mechanisms. In South Africa, 42 per cent of USD 13.92 billion in Just Energy Transition Partnership pledges had been allocated by December 2025; sovereign policy loans were the only instrument allocated in full, while concessional loans intended for the state utility were held back by its borrowing restrictions. In India, nine state-owned energy firms invested INR 2.33 trillion in fossil fuels and INR 0.30 trillion in clean energy in fiscal year 2025, and state distribution companies returned to long-term coal contracts while about 42 GW of tendered renewable capacity lacked buyers. In the lithium triangle, the state's share of rents follows state capacity and business power, and remains exposed to a fall in the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate from USD 63,700 per tonne in 2022 to USD 9,000 in 2025. The article shows how the composition and channel of climate finance, rather than its headline volume, shape domestic transition politics.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22998095first seen 2026-09-29 04:59:19 · last seen 2026-09-29 04:59:21
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