Asymmetric Impacts of EU ETS Fluctuations on New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Resilience: NARDL Approach
EU ETS変動の新エネルギー車サプライチェーンへの非対称的影響：NARDLアプローチ (AI 翻訳)
null Weiliang Wang, null Lea Richard
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究では、EU ETSの炭素価格変動が新エネルギー車（NEV）のサプライチェーン強靭性に与える非対称的な影響をNARDLモデルで分析した。結果、炭素価格の上昇はサプライチェーン強靭性を低下させる一方、下落は同等の改善効果をもたらさないことが示された。これはコストの硬直性や投資の遅れによるもので、政策立案や企業リスク管理への示唆を含む。
English
This study uses a NARDL model to examine asymmetric impacts of EU ETS carbon price fluctuations on new energy vehicle (NEV) supply chain resilience. It finds that carbon price hikes reduce resilience through increased costs and raw material volatility, while price declines do not proportionally improve resilience due to cost stickiness and investment lags. The results inform carbon market stabilization and supply chain risk management.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でもカーボンプライシングの導入が進む中、炭素価格変動が特定産業のサプライチェーンに非対称的に影響する本知見は、国内政策設計や企業のリスク管理体制構築に有用である。特に、NEV分野は日本の戦略産業であり、炭素価格ショックへの備えが必要となる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global carbon pricing literature by demonstrating non-linear, asymmetric effects on a critical decarbonization sector. It highlights the importance of considering asymmetries when designing carbon markets and managing transition risks. The findings are relevant for policymakers and investors in any jurisdiction with or considering carbon pricing.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:For researchers, this work provides a methodological framework (NARDL) to study asymmetric carbon price impacts on supply chain resilience.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability and supply chain managers can use these insights to anticipate non-proportional risks from carbon price volatility.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should consider asymmetric responses when designing carbon market stability mechanisms to avoid disproportionate harm to key green industries.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The transition toward a low-carbon economy has positioned the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sector as a pivotal component of global industrial strategy. However, the resilience of the NEV supply chain is increasingly challenged by the volatility of carbon pricing mechanisms, particularly the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). This study investigates the asymmetric impacts of EU ETS price fluctuations on NEV supply chain resilience using a Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach. Unlike traditional linear models, which assumesymmetric responses to positive and negative shocks, this research posits that the NEV supply chain reacts heterogeneously to carbon price hikes versus declines. utilizing monthly data covering theoperational phases of the EU ETS, we decompose carbon pricemovements into partial sum processes of positive and negative changes. The empirical results confirm the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship between carbon prices and supply chain resilience. Crucially, the findings reveal significant asymmetry: positive shocks to carbon prices exert a pronounced negative impact on supply chain resilience by escalating operational costs and raw material volatility, whereas negative shocks do not yield a statistically equivalent improvement in resilience due to cost stickiness and investment lag. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers aiming to stabilize carbon markets and for industry stakeholders managing supply chain risks in a volatile regulatory environment.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.71465/ajbce3595first seen 2026-05-14 21:16:30
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