インドにおける再生可能エネルギー発電の成長動向と構造変化：キンク付き指数成長モデルによる証拠（1991〜2025年）
GROWTH TRENDS AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY GENERATION IN INDIA: EVIDENCE FROM A KINKED EXPONENTIAL GROWTH MODEL (1991–2025) (原題)
S.K. Sarkar, C. VENKATESH
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドの再生可能エネルギー発電量の成長パターンを1991〜2025年についてキンク付き指数成長モデルで分析。政策転換点（2010年、JNNSM開始）前後で年間成長率が7.47%から13.62%へ加速したことを示し、政策効果の評価に貢献。モデルの適合度も高い（R²=0.982）。
English
This study analyzes India's renewable energy generation growth from 1991 to 2025 using a kinked exponential growth model. It finds that the annual growth rate accelerated from 7.47% before the 2010 policy breakpoint (JNNSM launch) to 13.62% after, with high model fit (R²=0.982). Provides evidence for policy evaluation and future planning.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の再エネ政策評価にも応用可能な手法。特にFIT導入や制度改正の前後で成長率の変化を定量的に捉える枠組みは、日本のエネルギー基本計画やGX推進戦略の検証に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper offers a quantitative method to assess policy-induced structural breaks in renewable energy growth, relevant for global policy evaluation frameworks like the IEA's tracking and national transition plans. It adds empirical evidence from India, a key emerging economy, to the global discourse on energy transition.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a methodological template for analyzing policy breakpoints in renewable energy growth using kinked exponential models.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how policy shifts can accelerate renewable energy deployment, useful for long-term planning and investment decisions.
🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the impact of policy interventions like JNNSM on renewable growth, informing future policy design and evaluation.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Energy transition to renewable energy has been adopted as a strategic choice by India to achieve energy security, sustainable development, and economic growth with low carbon emissions. The current study explores growth pattern and structural change of generation of renewable energy in India during the period of 1991–2025 using Kinked Exponential Growth Model. The research uses a quantitative, de-scriptive, and analytical research design employing only secondary time-series data collected from MNRE, CEA, Ministry of Power, RBI, NITI Aayog, India Energy Dashboard, IEA, and other official sources. It is found that there was growth in generation of renewable energy from 12,547 GWh to 258,764 GWh with an average of 98,456 GWh. There was acceleration in growth rate of generation of renewable energy from 5.84% during the pre-Electricity Act period to 17.86% during the Green Energy Transition period. The Kinked Exponential Growth Model was employed to estimate renewable energy growth patterns before and after the policy-induced structural breakpoint specified at 2010, corre-sponding to the launch of the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM). The estimated annual growth rate increased from 7.47% during the pre-break period to 13.62% during the post-break period. The Kinked Exponential Growth Model demonstrated a high in-sample model fit (R² = 0.982; F = 684.52; DW = 2.08). The findings indicate a significant change in the long-term growth trajectory of renewable energy generation following the policy-induced breakpoint. Although the model does not establish causal relationships, the estimated growth acceleration coincides with major renewable energy policy developments in India and provides valuable evidence for future renewable energy planning and policy evaluation.
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- openalex https://doi.org/10.65219/sjhss.20260103002first seen 2026-08-22 04:42:17
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