How Much Does It Cost to Buy All the Governments?
全ての政府を買収するのにいくらかかるのか？ (AI 翻訳)
Mike P. Sinn
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
この論文は、合法的な民主的チャネルを通じて政策変更を達成するための最大費用を米国で250億ドル、世界で2000億ドルと試算する。炭素価格のような高価値の改革では、便益費用比率が1000:1を超え、政治的な変更は単なる資本配分の問題であると論じる。
English
This paper estimates the maximum cost to achieve any policy change through legal democratic channels at $25 billion for the US and $200 billion globally. It argues that for high net-societal-value policies like carbon pricing, the benefit-cost ratio exceeds 1,000:1, making political change merely a capital allocation problem.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策（例：炭素価格導入）において、政策変更のコストを正当化するための枠組みを提供する。ただし、日本の政治・法制度に特化した分析ではなく、応用には注意が必要。
In the global GX context
This paper provides a cost framework for achieving policy changes like carbon pricing, relevant to global climate policy discussions. It shows that even maximum democratic costs are trivial compared to benefits, supporting ambitious GX policies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Policy change cost estimation methodology and its application to GX policies.
🏛政策担当者:Quantitative justification for investing in GX policy advocacy; potential to reframe political feasibility as a capital allocation problem.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Website: https://manual.warondisease.org/knowledge/appendix/cost-of-change-analysis.html Abstract: What is the maximum cost to achieve any policy change through legal democratic channels? We estimate \$25 billion for the United States and \$200 billion globally. These figures represent the upper bound of matching all opposition spending (campaign finance, lobbying) and providing career alternatives for affected legislators. For high net-societal-value policies, even these maximum costs yield extraordinary returns: military-to-health reallocation achieves a benefit-cost ratio exceeding 400,000:1, carbon pricing exceeds 1,000:1, and occupational licensing reform exceeds 2,000:1. The "political impossibility" objection thus reduces to a capital allocation problem. Political change is not impossible; it is merely expensive, and for valuable reforms, the price is trivial relative to the benefits. At system scale, the Optimal Governance Trajectory reaches 56.7x (95% CI: 19.3x-304x) the Earth baseline after 20 years, raises average income to \$1.16 million (95% CI: \$395,118-\$6.22 million) versus \$20,483 on the status-quo path, reaches \$10.7 quadrillion (95% CI: \$3.64 quadrillion-\$57.2 quadrillion) in total output, and recovers roughly \$101 trillion (95% CI: \$83.3 trillion-\$191 trillion)/year in suppressed value ([The Political Dysfunction Tax](https://political-dysfunction-tax.warondisease.org)). Summary: What's the maximum cost to achieve any policy change through legal democratic channels? \$25B for the US, \$200B globally. For high-value reforms like military-to-health reallocation, this yields ROI exceeding 400,000:1.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- Zenodo https://zenodo.org/records/20077577first seen 2026-05-14 21:29:05 · last seen 2026-05-14 21:39:01
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