EU-27はエネルギー部門の脱炭素目標を達成できるか？拡張STIRPATモデルに基づくシナリオ分析
Can EU-27 achieve the decarbonization target in the energy sector? A scenario analysis based on extended STIRPAT model (原題)
Taize Yu, Mingxuan Lyu, Ruiling Qu, Yufei Yang, Yiwen Zhang, Kunyu Niu, Haijiao Liu, Xiaoshang Deng
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は拡張STIRPATモデルとリッジ回帰を用い、1996〜2023年のEU-27におけるエネルギー関連CO2排出の決定要因を分析。地政学リスクとエネルギー転換を組み込んだ4シナリオを評価し、GDPと失業率が排出と正、研究開発支出が負に有意に関連することを示す。最も有利なシナリオでも2050年の完全カーボンニュートラル達成は困難であり、政策革新・市場インセンティブ・地政学的条件の統合的アプローチが必要と結論づける。
English
Using an extended STIRPAT model with ridge regression, this study analyzes determinants of EU-27 energy-related carbon emissions (1996–2023), incorporating geopolitical risk and energy transition. Four scenarios show GDP and unemployment positively, and R&D expenditure negatively, associated with emissions. Even the most favorable scenario struggles to reach full carbon neutrality by 2050, underscoring the need for integrated policy, market, and geopolitical approaches.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
EUの脱炭素シナリオ分析は、日本のSSBJ・GX推進・エネルギー政策の参考になる。特に地政学リスクを組み込んだ点は、資源輸入国である日本にとって示唆が大きい。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to global decarbonization pathway modeling by integrating geopolitical risk into the STIRPAT framework, offering insights for regions facing similar uncertainties. It complements TCFD/ISSB scenario analysis by quantifying policy and market drivers of energy-sector emissions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:STIRPATモデルに地政学リスクを統合したシナリオ分析手法は、他地域の脱炭素研究に応用可能。
🏢実務担当者:EU市場で事業展開する企業は、政策・市場シナリオに応じた排出削減戦略の立案に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:カーボンニュートラル達成には政策・市場・地政学の統合的アプローチが不可欠であることを示唆。
📄 Abstract（原文）
In response to growing global climate concerns, the European Union (EU) has set ambitious goals to achieve a 55% reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050. However, uncertainties associated with geopolitical risks, economic fluctuations, and the pace of technological transition pose significant challenges to this goal. This study employs an extended STIRPAT model with ridge regression to analyze the key determinants of energy-related carbon emissions in the EU-27 from 1996 to 2023. In contrast to studies that primarily focus on economic and technological factors, this study incorporates geopolitical risk and energy transition into the analytical framework, addressing an underexplored aspect of the literature. Four future scenarios—baseline scenario, policy-driven decarbonization, market-driven decarbonization, and comprehensive low-carbon transition—are used to evaluate the potential trajectories of carbon emissions in the EU’s energy sector. The results reveal that GDP and unemployment are significantly and positively associated with emissions, while R&D expenditure has a significant negative association. Nonetheless, even in the most favorable scenario, complete carbon neutrality in the energy sector by 2050 remains challenging. These findings highlight the need for an integrated approach, combining policy innovation, market-driven incentives, and favorable geopolitical conditions. The study offers valuable policy insights for EU member states and serves as a reference for other regions pursuing low-carbon transitions amid global uncertainties.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfor.2026.09.002first seen 2026-09-12 05:07:37
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