Marchetti's Cold Case Energy Model Needs Revisiting: Competing energy sources in an evolutionary process of substitution?
マルケッティのコールドケースエネルギー・モデルは再評価が必要：競合するエネルギー源の進化的代替プロセス？ (AI 翻訳)
Rocco MORELLI
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、IIASAが1979年に発表したマルケッティ＝ナキセノビッチのエネルギー源物流代替モデルを批判的に検証する。2024-2025年の実績データと比較し、地政学的要因や技術加速による予測の乖離を明らかにする。石炭の粘り強さ、天然ガスの橋渡し役、再生可能エネルギーの急拡大を指摘し、豊かさのパラドックスやAIのエネルギー需要増大にも言及。エネルギー転換の複雑性と国家の役割再考を促す。
English
This paper critically revisits the Marchetti-Nakicenovic logistic substitution model of energy sources from 1979, comparing its projections to actual 2024-2025 data. It highlights divergences due to geopolitics and technology acceleration, emphasizing coal's resilience, natural gas as a bridge, and the exponential rise of renewables. It also discusses the paradox of abundance and AI's growing energy demand, calling for a reconsideration of state roles in energy transition.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のエネルギー政策（石炭フェーズダウン、原子力再稼働、再生可能エネルギー拡大）は、マルケッティモデルの批判的検討と共振する点が多い。特に、エネルギーミックスの長期的予測の不確実性や、国家主導の技術開発（次世代原子力、LENR）の必要性は、日本のGX政策に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper challenges the foundational assumptions of long-term energy forecasting models used in global transition scenarios. For practitioners and policymakers relying on IEA or IPCC pathways, the critique of orderly substitution and the emphasis on unpredictable geopolitical and technological shifts are directly relevant to transition planning and disclosure risk.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:A useful case study in the limitations of classic energy modeling and the need for adaptive forecasting methods.
🏢実務担当者:Provides insight into the unpredictability of energy mix transitions, informing strategic planning for corporate decarbonization.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the inadequacy of single-path transition models and the need for flexible policies that account for geopolitical and technological surprises.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract This paper critically and heuristically analyzes the famous model of logistical substitution of energy sources developed by Cesare Marchetti and Nebojsa Nakicenovic at IIASA in 1979. Using a "Cold Case" approach, the study compares historical projections with actual data on the global energy mix in 2024-2025, highlighting the profound divergences caused by geopolitical factors and technological accelerations that were unforeseeable at the time. While the original model assumed an orderly and symmetrical transition to nuclear dominance, the current reality shows the "resilience" of coal, the continued role of natural gas as a bridge fuel, and the exponential explosion of renewables. The work also explores the paradox of abundance: the shift from the Age of Scarcity to the Age of Superimposability, where the sum of technological potentials vastly exceeds human needs, shifting the issue from resource availability to the management of competition and profit. Finally, the article addresses the challenges posed by artificial intelligence, whose energy hunger threatens to compete with habitual human uses, and the need to reconsider the role of the state in cutting-edge research (advanced nuclear power and LENR). The article concludes that overcoming Western democratic regimes may depend on the ability to guarantee energy as a public right, avoiding the creation of artificial scarcity induced by speculative dynamics, and critically reconsidering the failure of privatizations in strategic sectors.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.17613/q6qxh-f6q50first seen 2026-06-05 04:58:22
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。