Energy transition and structural change: A calibrated Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output model
エネルギー転換と構造変化：キャリブレーション済みストック・フロー整合型産業連関モデル (AI 翻訳)
Mattia Pettena, Marco Raberto
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
世界経済を対象に、ストック・フロー整合型産業連関モデルを構築し、IEAの3つのエネルギー転換シナリオをシミュレーション。緑色電力と電化の進展がGDP成長を押し上げ、機械・金属産業の相対的重要性が増す。インフレは賃金上昇で生じるが、電力価格は低下。最も強い転換努力のみが排出削減を達成し、電力生産はIEA予測を上回る。
English
A Stock-Flow Consistent Input-Output model of the world economy simulates three IEA energy transition pathways. Green electricity expansion and electrification boost GDP growth and raise the relative importance of machinery and metals industries. Inflation rises due to wage growth, but electricity prices fall. Only the strongest transition scenario achieves emission reductions, and electricity production exceeds IEA projections.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策（GX推進戦略、成長志向型カーボンプライシング）において、エネルギー転換のマクロ経済効果を定量的に示す本モデルは、産業構造変化や投資配分の検討に有用。特に、電力部門の脱炭素化がGDPや雇用に与える影響を評価する際の参照点となる。
In the global GX context
This model provides a rigorous macroeconomic framework for assessing the economy-wide impacts of energy transition pathways, complementing global climate policy discussions under the Paris Agreement and net-zero targets. Its sectoral detail offers insights for transition finance and just transition planning, relevant to ISSB-aligned disclosure and transition plan assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a novel integrated SFC-IO model for analyzing energy transition dynamics, useful for further research on structural change and climate policy.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into sectoral shifts and investment implications, aiding strategic planning for utilities and industrial firms.
🏛政策担当者:Informs macroeconomic policy design for energy transition, highlighting trade-offs between growth, inflation, and emissions.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The energy transition involves structural changes in the economy. Green utilities increase their investments, while brown utilities and fossil fuel producers shrink. These developments affect supply chains in expansionary and contractionary ways, respectively, and generate multiplier and accelerator effects. We develop a Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output macroeconomic model of the world economy to analyze these dynamics. It includes a production network comprising 27 industries, differentiating between key mining, manufacturing, service, and both green and brown electricity sectors. It is the first model of its kind to have each industry invest in distinct capital goods based on sector- and asset-specific requirements. All parameters related to production technologies capture real relationships and are derived from real-world data. We have simulated three energy transition pathways envisioned by the International Energy Agency (IEA) by empirically implementing two parallel processes: (i) the increasing share of electricity generated by green utilities and (ii) the electrification of production techniques and household consumption. The resulting dynamics yield several key insights. The net effect of the above-mentioned expansionary and contractionary forces is to boost GDP growth and entails a high investment share. The relative importance of industries supplying machinery and metals increases. Technological changes stemming from the transition yield mildly deflationary effects. Nevertheless, inflation increases because of rising wage rates. Electricity is the only product whose price decreases with the transition. The only scenario capable of achieving a decline in emissions is the one entailing the strongest transition effort. Finally, electricity production is much higher than projections by the IEA.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2025.10.014first seen 2026-08-02 18:03:35
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