将来の気候シナリオが中国の主要リンゴ産地である陝西省におけるMarssonina coronariaの北へのシフトと生息地喪失を促進する
Future Climate Scenarios Drive the Northward Shift and Habitat Loss of <i>Marssonina coronaria</i> in Shaanxi Province, China’s Core Apple-Growing Area (原題)
Qi Lu, Ke Lei, Xiaolong Zhang, Hongmei Li, Danni Xue, Xinting Ning, Guole Jing, Yi Liang, Zhichao Liu
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の黄土高原におけるリンゴ褐斑病（AMB）の将来分布を、8つのモデルを用いたアンサンブル予測により評価した。SSPシナリオに基づく予測では、2070年までに高適合生息地が67〜86%減少し、北部の高海拔地域に断片化すると示された。気候変動が病原菌の分布を北東へ移動させ、伝統的産地での病害安定性を低下させる可能性がある。
English
This study projects the future distribution of apple Marssonina blotch (AMB) in China's Loess Plateau using an ensemble of eight species distribution models. Under SSP scenarios, high-suitability habitats are projected to decline by 67-86% by 2070, retreating to fragmented high-elevation refugia. Climate change may shift the pathogen's range northeastward, reducing disease stability in traditional apple-growing regions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本の農業分野では、気候変動適応策の一環として病害虫分布予測が重要であり、本研究成果は早期警戒システムの構築に示唆を与える。ただし、日本のGX政策（SSBJ等）との直接的な関連は薄い。
In the global GX context
This study contributes to global climate adaptation research by demonstrating how climate change alters pathogen distributions, which is relevant for agricultural planning and food security. It provides a methodological example of species distribution modeling under climate scenarios that could be applied to other regions and crops.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Species distribution modeling under climate scenarios offers a robust framework for assessing climate impacts on agricultural pests.
🏢実務担当者:Apple growers and agricultural extension services can use these projections to develop early warning systems and adaptive management strategies.
🏛政策担当者:Agricultural policymakers should consider climate-driven shifts in pest distributions when planning regional adaptation measures.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Apple Marssonina blotch (AMB), caused by Marssonina coronaria, endangers apple production on China’s Loess Plateau. Climate change has increased its outbreaks, but future distributional impacts remain unclear. Using 832 field records and an eight-model BIOMOD2 (a species distribution modeling platform) ensemble (true skill statistic [TSS] = 0.90; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.98), we projected AMB suitability under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1_2.6 (low greenhouse gas emission scenario), SSP3_7.0 (medium greenhouse gas emission scenario), and SSP5_8.5 (high greenhouse gas emission scenario) for 2041 to 2070. Key climatic constraints shaping AMB’s distribution included the mean diurnal temperature range (39.7%), precipitation seasonality (21.4%), isothermality (15.6%), warm-season precipitation (12.8%), and annual mean temperature (10.5%). Currently, high-suitability habitats for AMB span 2.36 × 10 4 km 2 in western Guanzhong. By 2070, the high-suitability areas of this pathogen are projected to decline by 67, 78, and 86% under SSP1_2.6, SSP3_7.0, and SSP5_8.5, respectively, and will retreat to fragmented, high-elevation refugia in the northern Loess Plateau. Only SSP5_8.5 achieves a 12% net gain in total suitable area, predominantly from low-suitability zones. Schoener’s D (a metric quantifying ecological niche overlap, ranging from 0 = no overlap to 1 = complete overlap) < 0.45 indicates a niche shift toward regions with intensified precipitation seasonality and elevated warm-season precipitation, with the range centroid shifting northeast by up to 109 km. Future warming may favor northern habitats, but spring drought and summer heat stress will restrict colonization, creating a “warming–drying trade-off.” Overall, climate change will compress AMB’s optimal habitat into isolated, high-altitude patches, reducing disease stability in traditional apple-growing regions. These projections provide scientific support for developing early warning systems and climate-adaptive management strategies for AMB.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- crossref https://doi.org/10.1094/pdis-11-25-2276-refirst seen 2026-08-29 05:38:48 · last seen 2026-09-10 05:30:28
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