バイオ炭による炭素除去の経路：国家フォーサイト研究
Pathways for biochar carbon removal: A national foresight study (原題)
L. Campion, M.J. Spaniol, T.P. Thomsen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、バイオマス熱分解によるバイオ炭炭素除去（BCR）の将来経路を、デンマークを事例に専門家インタビュー・ステークホルダー評価・シナリオモデリングで分析した。補助金、炭素価格、農業利用規制、バイオマス供給の4つが決定的不確実性として特定され、炭素価格と農業規制の組み合わせで4つの展開経路が導かれる。技術的準備や炭素価格上昇だけでは普及せず、安定した経済インセンティブと予測可能な規制が鍵だと結論づける。
English
This study maps future pathways for biochar carbon removal (BCR) in Denmark using expert interviews, stakeholder ranking, and scenario modeling. Four critical uncertainties emerge—subsidies, carbon prices, agricultural-use regulation, and biomass availability—yielding four deployment scenarios. It concludes that technological readiness and rising carbon prices alone are insufficient; stable incentives and predictable regulation are decisive.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
炭素除去（CDR）は日本のGX政策・JCM・カーボンクレジット制度でも注目が高まる領域であり、炭素価格と農業規制の相互作用を描く本シナリオ手法は、国内のCDR戦略やSSBJ開示における除去量評価の参考になる。
In the global GX context
As CDR gains prominence in global climate policy and voluntary carbon markets, this paper shows how carbon price and regulatory design jointly determine BCR deployment—directly relevant to ISSB/CSRD disclosure of removal credits and to transition-finance underwriting of CDR projects.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:炭素除去技術の普及条件をシナリオ手法で分析する枠組みを提供する。
🏢実務担当者:CDR投資や炭素クレジット調達の際、規制・補助金の不確実性を織り込む必要性を示す。
🏛政策担当者:炭素価格と農業規制の整合的設計がBCR普及の鍵であることを示唆する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Biochar carbon removal (BCR), achieved by stabilizing biogenic carbon through biomass pyrolysis, is gaining attention as a potential climate mitigation strategy. Yet, its future remains uncertain due to evolving market and regulatory conditions, and existing research provides limited insight into how these uncertainties interact to shape alternative deployment pathways. Using Denmark as a national case, this study combines expert interviews, stakeholder ranking, and scenario modeling to map critical uncertainties and explore plausible future pathways. Seven uncertainty categories are identified, with four emerging as critical: subsidies, carbon prices, regulations concerning biochar's agricultural use, and biomass availability. Stakeholders highlighted carbon prices and agricultural regulations as particularly decisive, which were then used for scenario development. Our results suggest that pyrolysis is relevant across all futures, but its role and scale differ markedly. Depending on the interaction between carbon prices and regulatory action, BCR may i) evolve as a large-scale carbon removal pathway, ii) shift towards non-agricultural biochar uses, iii) be confined to niche environmental applications such as sewage sludge treatment, or iv) become viable only within narrow subsidy-defined limits. These findings challenge implicit assumptions that technological readiness and rising carbon prices alone will lead to widespread BCR deployment. We demonstrate how deployment hinges on stable economic incentives and clear, predictable regulations. We conclude with recommendations for enabling the climate and environmental benefits of BCR across different plausible futures.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2026.104988first seen 2026-09-28 05:22:32
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