“Pandora’s box” or “Silver lining of the dark cloud” for CO2 mitigation of China’s coal chemical industry: Low-carbon development strategies derived from a 4F analytical approach
Yao Shi, Bingqian Zhang, Hao Xiao, Kun Yan, Chen Feng, Yacong Hu, Guangying Pu, Yang Chen, Qian Yang, Jinping Tian, Yang Guo, Lyujun Chen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
中国石炭化学産業の6製品・306工場を対象に、Function-Framework-Footprint-Forecast（4F）モデルで2025〜2035年のCO2排出経路を分析。2025年排出量は845.53 MtCO2eで、石炭toアンモニアが最大シェア38%を占める。強化シナリオでは老朽設備廃止等により2030年までに766.14 MtCO2eへ削減しピークアウトが可能。内モンゴル・陝西・寧夏・新疆の重点省が排出・削減の中心となる。
English
A 4F (Function-Framework-Footprint-Forecast) model analyzes CO2 pathways for China's coal chemical industry across six products and 306 plants in 25 provinces, 2025-2035. 2025 emissions reach 845.53 MtCO2e, with coal-to-ammonia the largest share (38%). A Reinforcement Scenario phasing out outdated plants cuts emissions to 766.14 MtCO2e by 2030, enabling pre-2030 peaking, with key northwestern provinces driving reductions.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国の産業脱炭素における工場レベルの炭素会計手法は、日本のSSBJ・Scope3開示や高排出産業のトランジション計画策定にも示唆を与える。ただし対象は中国石炭化学セクターに限定される。
In the global GX context
Provides plant-level carbon accounting and scenario-based abatement pathways for a hard-to-abate heavy industry, relevant to ISSB/TCFD-aligned transition planning and to global debates on industrial decarbonization in emerging economies.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:工場レベルのボトムアップ炭素会計とシナリオ予測を組み合わせた4Fモデルの手法は、他産業・他国への応用研究の参照枠となる。
🏢実務担当者:高排出産業における老朽設備廃止とプロセス排出削減の優先順位づけの考え方を学べる。
🏛政策担当者:重点省集中と段階的設備廃止によるピークアウト政策設計の定量的根拠として参考になる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
China’s coal chemical industry faces the critical challenge of balancing energy and supply-chain security with CO2 mitigation. This study develops a Function-Framework-Footprint-Forecast (4F) model to address this challenge. The analysis covers six coal chemical products, including coal-to-methanol, coal-to-ammonia, coal-to-liquid, coal-to-natural gas, coal-to-olefins, and coal-to-ethylene glycol, across 306 plants in 25 Chinese provinces and explores development pathways from 2025 to 2035. The key findings are as follows: (1) In 2025, China’s coal chemical industry emitted 845.53 MtCO2e. Coal-to-ammonia contributed the largest share (38.0%), while modern coal chemical products accounted for approximately 40%. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, further expansion of modern coal chemical production capacity is projected to increase total emissions by 14%. (2) Under the Reinforcement Scenario, phasing out outdated plants and reducing emissions from industrial processes and fuel combustion would lower the industry’s emissions to 766.14 MtCO2e by 2030, enabling it to reach peak carbon emissions before 2030. (3) Spatially, the combined share of emissions from key provinces, including Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Xinjiang, is projected to increase from 54% in 2025 to 61%~66% across the scenarios. Under the Reinforcement Scenario, these provinces would contribute 40% of the total emission reductions achieved by 2035. This study provides plant-level evidence to support robust carbon-emission accounting and the low-carbon development of China’s coal chemical industry.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcradv.2026.200398first seen 2026-11-08 04:58:12 · last seen 2026-11-13 05:10:20
- primary_source https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rcradv.2026.200398first seen 2026-11-08 23:56:54
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