バイオマスとバイオエネルギー：2050年までの世界の持続可能な潜在量に関する体系的・批判的レビュー
Biomass and bioenergy: A systematic and critical review of the global sustainable potential until 2050 (原題)
Theophilus Nii Odai Mensah, Ayobami Solomon Oyewo, Christian Breyer
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
1999〜2025年の世界のバイオエネルギー資源評価を体系的にレビューした研究。技術的潜在量は150〜400EJと幅広いが、持続可能性基準を課すと2050年には80〜150EJへと縮小する。IPCCの緩和経路がしばしば100EJ超の大規模利用を前提とする点との緊張関係を指摘し、土地利用会計の透明化と持続可能性優先の制約を統合評価モデルに組み込む必要性を訴える。
English
A systematic review of three decades (1999–2025) of global bioenergy resource assessments. Technical potentials span 150–400 EJ, but sustainability constraints narrow the 2050 envelope to roughly 80–150 EJ. The authors highlight tension with IPCC mitigation pathways that often assume deployment above the ~100 EJ indicative sustainability limit, and call for harmonised definitions, transparent land-use accounting, and sustainability-first constraints in integrated assessment models.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本はバイオマス発電のFIT依存と輸入ペレット調達が課題であり、持続可能供給上限の議論は調達リスク・電源計画・SSBJのScope3評価に直結する。国内の木質バイオマス政策やエネルギー基本計画の現実性検討に有用。
In the global GX context
Directly relevant to global net-zero pathway credibility: it challenges the large-scale bioenergy (and BECCS) assumptions embedded in IPCC/IAM scenarios that underpin many corporate and national transition plans. Supports more rigorous land-use and sustainability accounting in ISSB/CSRD-aligned climate disclosures.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:バイオエネルギー潜在量推計の方法論的系譜と持続可能性制約の収束点を整理する基準文献として有用。
🏢実務担当者:バイオマス調達やBECCS前提の脱炭素計画を立てる際、供給上限と土地利用制約を保守的に見積もる根拠になる。
🏛政策担当者:バイオマス利用を前提とするエネルギー・気候計画の妥当性検証と、持続可能性基準の制度化に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Bioenergy plays a pivotal role in global defossilisation strategies, particularly in smart energy system scenarios that rely on bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration to achieve net-zero and net-negative emissions. Nevertheless, estimates of the global bioenergy potential vary widely across the literature, reflecting divergent methodological assumptions and sustainability constraints. This review synthesises three decades, 1999–2025, of global bioenergy resource assessments, tracing the evolution from early theoretical projections exceeding 138,900–277,800 TWh (500–1000 EJ) to more recent sustainability-constrained estimates. The review examines agro-ecological zoning models, bottom-up resource assessments, integrated assessment models, satellite-derived net primary productivity ceilings, and spatially explicit sustainability-first frameworks. Across approaches, a clear convergence emerges: while technical potentials commonly range between 41,700–111,100 TWh (150–400 EJ), incorporation of sustainability criteria reduces the technical supply envelope to approximately 22,200–41,700 TWh (80–150 EJ) by 2050. This tightening of resource estimates contrasts with several mitigation pathways scenarios in Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change reports that assume large-scale bioenergy deployment, often exceeding the indicative sustainability limit of 27,800 TWh (100 EJ) by 2050. By linking methodological evolution in resource assessment studies with its representation in global climate mitigation modelling, this review highlights a growing tension between sustainability-constrained supply and mitigation demand. The findings underscore the need for harmonised definitions, transparent land-use accounting, and sustainability-first constraints within integrated assessment models frameworks. Bioenergy can contribute meaningfully to defossilisation of energy systems, but aligning climate pathways with empirically grounded sustainable supply limits is essential for credible and ecologically robust net-zero strategies.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.segy.2026.100276first seen 2026-11-02 04:38:02 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:36:09
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