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ETS Price Signal in the Power Sector: Evidence on Decarbonisation and Policy Overlap

電力部門におけるETS価格シグナル：脱炭素化と政策重複のエビデンス (AI 翻訳)

Di Foggia G, Beccarello M, Jammeh B

Research Squareプレプリント2026-05-24#炭素価格Origin: EU
DOI: 10.32388/iogu7j
原典: https://doi.org/10.32388/iogu7j

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、2013～2024年の欧州電力部門においてEU ETS炭素価格が再生可能エネルギー導入を直接促進したかを検証。パネル計量分析、6カ国180社調査、8カ国の時間別市場データを用いた結果、公的支援メカニズムのみが再生可能容量拡大の統計的に有意な要因であり、ETS価格は直接効果を示さなかった。ETSは主に卸電力価格への転嫁と低炭素技術への限界レント発生を通じて作用し、規制上のCO2係数と実測転嫁率の乖離は加盟国間で最大46.2倍に達する。

English

This paper examines whether the EU ETS carbon price directly drove renewable energy deployment in the European power sector from 2013-2024. Using panel econometrics, a survey of 180 firms across six EU countries, and hourly market data from eight member states, it finds that public support mechanisms are the only robust and statistically significant driver of renewable capacity expansion; the EUA price has no direct effect. The ETS primarily operates through wholesale electricity price transmission and inframarginal rents for low-carbon technologies. Regulatory CO2 factors for indirect cost compensation diverge from observed pass-through by factors ranging from 1.2x in Italy to 46.2x in Sweden.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

本稿は、炭素価格だけでは再エネ投資に不十分であることを実証し、日本が拡大中の自国ETSや政策ミックスを検討する上で示唆に富む。直接的な支援メカニズムの重要性や、電力市場設計を通じた炭素価格の間接的効果を明らかにしており、日本のGXプライシングと電力部門脱炭素化の議論に貢献する。

In the global GX context

This paper contributes to the global debate on carbon pricing effectiveness by showing that the EU ETS has not directly driven renewable capacity but works through wholesale price pass-through and inframarginal rents. The findings are critical for policymakers designing carbon pricing systems with overlapping policies. The novel comparison of regulatory and observed pass-through rates offers a methodological advance for assessing carbon cost pass-through in electricity markets.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Useful for scholars studying carbon pricing effectiveness and policy interaction in electricity markets.

🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams can understand how carbon pricing affects electricity costs and renewable investment decisions.

🏛政策担当者:Policymakers should note that carbon pricing alone may not drive renewable deployment; complementary support mechanisms are essential.

📄 Abstract（原文）

We examine whether the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) carbon price has effectively operated as a direct driver of renewable-energy deployment in the European electricity sector over the period 2013-2024 and investigate the interaction between carbon pricing, renewable investment dynamics and wholesale electricity-price formation within marginal pricing systems. Combining panel econometric analysis on installed renewable capacity across European Member States, a cross-country survey of 180 firms in six EU ETS countries, and an hourly market-based estimation of inframarginal rents on a panel of eight Member States, the chapter finds that public support mechanisms emerge as the only consistently robust and statistically significant driver of renewable-capacity expansion. The EU Allowance (EUA) price does not exhibit a statistically significant direct effect on renewable deployment after controlling for structural and market variables. In electricity markets, the ETS primarily operates through mechanisms that shape wholesale electricity prices and carbon-cost pass-through, generating persistent inframarginal revenues for low-carbon technologies through marginal price formation. A comparison between regulatory CO₂ factors used for indirect ETS cost compensation and observed market-based pass-through indicators reveals materially divergent magnitudes across Member States, with regulatory-to-observed ratios ranging from 1.2x in Italy to 46.2x in Sweden. The evidence suggests that, in European electricity markets, the ETS currently operates more directly as a wholesale-price transmission and revenue-redistribution mechanism than as a sufficiently autonomous and stable driver of renewable investment deployment.

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