経済発展とカーボンニュートラルの相乗を目指す土地利用の空間最適化：効率駆動型PLUSモデルに基づく検討

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:グリッド単位の炭素・経済効率を空間シミュレーションに統合する手法は、土地利用と脱炭素の定量研究に応用可能。

🏢実務担当者:不動産・建設・製造の用地選定や拠点計画で、炭素ストック損失を考慮した立地評価の視点を提供する。

🏛政策担当者:自治体の国土利用計画・戦略的環境アセスメントで、経済優先と炭素中立のトレードオフを事前比較する手法として参考になる。

Optimizing land-use allocation is important for achieving regional carbon-peaking and carbon-neutrality targets. Existing land-use simulation studies generally incorporate carbon objectives through ex-post assessment or macro-level land-demand optimization, leaving historical grid-level carbon–economic performance disconnected from future spatial allocation. To further address this limitation, we developed LUCE-PLUS, a framework that links grid-scale land-transition accounting and efficiency evaluation with PLUS-based spatial simulation. Using Jiujiang City, China, as a case study, we quantified conversion costs, economic-output changes, and carbon emissions induced by observed land-use transitions from 2010 to 2020 at a 30-m resolution. A single-stage mixed-integer linear programming super-efficiency range-adjusted measure (Sup-RAM) model treated carbon emissions as a weakly disposable undesirable output and enabled discrimination among efficient grid-level transition units while ensuring Pareto-efficient projections. The resulting surfaces of economic efficiency and carbon–economic synergy efficiency were incorporated into PLUS as scenario-specific predictors of land-use expansion probabilities. Land-use patterns in 2030 were simulated under natural-development, economic-dominant, and carbon–economic dual-objective scenarios while aggregate land demand and planning constraints were held constant. Mean carbon–economic synergy efficiency was 20.5% lower than mean economic efficiency, indicating that economic efficiency alone may understate the carbon-related environmental costs of land-use transitions. Compared with the dual-objective scenario, the economic-dominant scenario increased the projected GDP increment by only 0.04% but raised land-use-change-induced carbon emissions by 7.3%. Impervious-land expansion under the dual-objective scenario also showed a stronger tendency toward locations associated with lower carbon-stock losses. LUCE-PLUS therefore provides a performance-informed approach to low-carbon spatial allocation under fixed land-demand targets. From an environmental impact assessment perspective, the framework could support alternatives analysis in strategic environmental assessment of territorial spatial plans by enabling ex ante comparison of projected land-use patterns, carbon-stock changes, and economic outcomes under consistent planning constraints.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2026.108744first seen 2026-09-21 04:40:01