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広西電力システムにおける太陽光PV拡大とCCUS導入の炭素・大気汚染物質削減の共便益：2060年までのLEAPに基づくシナリオ分析

Co-Benefits of Solar PV Expansion and CCUS Deployment for Carbon and Air-Pollutant Reduction in Guangxi’s Power System: A LEAP-Based Scenario Analysis to 2060 (原題)

Yongliang Luo, Yu Han, Biao Yang, Xuwen Zheng, Supannika Wattana, Buncha Wattana

Sustainability📚 査読済 / ジャーナル2026-08-07#エネルギー転換Origin: CN経営インパクト: コスト削減対象セクター: power
DOI: 10.3390/su18168074
原典: https://doi.org/10.3390/su18168074
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🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

LEAPモデルを用いて広西の電力システムを2060年までシナリオ分析し、再生可能エネルギー主導とCCUS集約の経路を比較。統合シナリオではCO2を約95%削減し、大気汚染物質も大幅低減。CCUSは石炭維持経路では有効だが、再生可能エネルギー経路では寄与が小さく、費用対効果も劣る。再生可能エネルギー経路はシステム全体でコスト削減効果があり、健康便益も大きい。

English

Using LEAP, this study models Guangxi's power system to 2060 under four scenarios, comparing renewable-led and CCUS-intensive pathways. The integrated scenario cuts CO2 by ~95% and significantly reduces air pollutants. CCUS contributes ~75% of CO2 reduction in coal-retaining pathways but only ~5% in renewables-led pathways, and is less cost-effective. Renewables-led pathways become net cost-saving and yield larger health co-benefits.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の電力システム脱炭素化において、再エネとCCUSの役割分担を定量的に示す参考となる。特に、CCUSの限界と再エネの費用対効果の高さは、日本の長期エネルギー計画や電源構成検討に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This study provides a rigorous comparison of renewable and CCUS pathways for power decarbonization, relevant to global discussions on technology portfolios and cost-effectiveness. It highlights the limited air-quality co-benefits of CCUS and the cost advantages of renewables, informing international climate policy and investment decisions.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides a methodological framework for separating renewable and CCUS contributions in power system modeling.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for utility planning and investment in renewables vs. CCUS, including cost and co-benefit considerations.

🏛政策担当者:Informs policy design for power sector decarbonization, emphasizing the importance of renewables for air quality and cost savings.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Provincial power systems must decarbonize while sustaining rapid demand growth and improving air quality; yet, few integrated assessments separate the contributions of renewable expansion and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) for China’s less-developed regions. We apply the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) to model Guangxi’s power system to 2060 under four scenarios—Reference (BAS), Renewable-driven (RES), CCUS-intensive (CCS), and an Integrated comprehensive-policy scenario (ICS). Under ICS, solar photovoltaic generation rises from 38 TWh in 2025 to 408 TWh in 2060 (close to half of all generations), non-fossil capacity grows by about 730%, and power-sector CO2 falls by roughly 95% relative to BAS. A counterfactual decomposition shows that CCUS provides about 75% of the CO2 reduction along the coal-retaining CCS pathway but only about 5% along the renewables-led ICS pathway and reduces neither SO2 nor NOx. The air-quality co-benefits—up to 82%, 78%, and 73% lower SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 than BAS—arise mainly from renewable substitution, which also abates carbon more cheaply (about 120–190 versus 300 CNY t−1 CO2) while sharply raising flexibility needs. Once avoided fuel and carbon-market costs are included, the renewables-led pathways become net cost-saving on a full-system basis and yield a monetized air-quality health co-benefit roughly twice that of the CCUS-intensive route. The findings give policy-relevant guidance for sustainable low-carbon transitions in Guangxi and comparable emerging regions.

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