Simulation and Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda Under Current and Three Future Scenarios Based on the Biomod2 Model Under Global Climate Change
全球気候変動下におけるBiomod2モデルに基づく現在および3つの将来シナリオにおけるツマジロクサヨトウの潜在的分布のシミュレーションと予測 (AI 翻訳)
Zhipeng He, Boyang Zhang, Rulin Wang, Danping Xu, Xinqi Deng, Zhihang Zhuo
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本論文は、気候変動下におけるツマジロクサヨトウの潜在分布を、6つの機械学習モデルを統合したアンサンブルモデルを用いて予測。現在の適地は東アジアと北米中央部に集中し、将来シナリオでは高排出シナリオほど高緯度への拡大が顕著で、適地面積が最大91.8%増加することを示した。
English
This study uses an ensemble of six ML models (XGBOOST, Maxnet, etc.) to predict the potential distribution of the fall armyworm under current and three future climate scenarios. Current suitable areas are mainly in East Asia and central North America, covering ~10% of global land. Under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario, suitable area expands by 91.8% with pronounced poleward shifts, while the low-emission SSP1-2.6 scenario shows a slight reduction.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
In the global GX context
This paper models climate-driven range shifts of a major agricultural pest, providing insights relevant to global food security and climate adaptation planning. It uses ML methods but does not directly address decarbonization, disclosure, or corporate ESG.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Demonstrates an ensemble ML approach for species distribution modeling under climate scenarios, useful for ecological and climate impact research.
🏢実務担当者:Provides spatial risk maps that could inform agricultural pest management and quarantine strategies under future climates.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the potential for increased pest pressure under high-emission pathways, supporting climate adaptation policy in agriculture.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Spodoptera frugiperda is a highly polyphagous pest that poses a serious threat to global agricultural production. Understanding its species distribution is of great importance under the current context of climate change. In this study, we used the biomod2 platform to integrate six models, namely XGBOOST, Maxnet, Maxent, MARS, GBM, and GLM, to construct an ensemble model. This ensemble model was used to simulate the potential distribution of S. frugiperda under current and three future climate scenarios, and to analyze the main environmental factors influencing its distribution and their change trends. The results indicated that Bio08, Bio16, Bio09, and Bio03 were the major environmental factors affecting the species’ distribution. Under the current scenario, the suitable area was approximately 2026.05 × 104 km2, accounting for about 10% of the global land area, and was mainly concentrated in East Asia and central North America. The expansion of S. frugiperda varied among the three future climate scenarios; under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the expansion toward higher latitudes was the most pronounced, with the total suitable area increasing by 91.8%. Analysis of the three climate scenarios revealed that the expansion trend of S. frugiperda intensified with increasing carbon emissions. Under the most conservative SSP1-2.6 scenario, even a slight reduction in suitable area was possible. This study provides an in-depth exploration of the distribution characteristics of S. frugiperda and its responses to environmental factors from a geographical perspective. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the species’ potential distribution and the influence of environmental variables from a spatial standpoint. They offer a scientific basis for the prevention and control of this pest in specific regions, and may also serve as a reference for future studies on similar invasive insect pests.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/insects17080772first seen 2026-07-29 05:22:12
🔔 こうした論文の新着を逃したくない方は キーワードアラート に登録（無料・3キーワードまで）。
gxceed は公開メタデータに基づく研究支援データセットです。要約・翻訳・解説は AI 支援で生成されています。 最終的な解釈・検証は利用者が原典資料に基づいて行うことを前提とします。