中国海南省におけるエネルギー消費由来炭素排出の駆動要因とデカップリングの分析

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🔬研究者:Provides a methodological template for decomposing emission drivers and decoupling analysis in a subnational context.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into how energy intensity and industrial structure improvements can reduce emissions, useful for corporate decarbonization planning.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of energy structure and intensity policies in achieving decoupling, relevant for regional climate strategy.

高耗能、高排放行业为经济发展做出了巨大贡献，但其碳排放量也十分巨大。为尽早实现“双碳”目标，本研究以中国海南省为研究区域，采用LMDI方法对碳排放的影响因素进行分解，并运用Tapio模型分析驱动因素与碳排放之间的脱钩关系。结果表明：（1）2007年至2022年海南省碳排放总体呈上升趋势，年均增长率为5.75%。各类油品占比平均超过40.11%，但电力占比上升，油品占比下降。各行业按碳排放量从高到低排序为：工业 > 交通运输 > 居民生活 > 农林牧渔业。（2）分解结果表明，经济产出、能源结构和人口规模对碳排放具有正向效应，而能源强度和产业结构具有负向效应。在行业层面，能源结构因素仅对交通运输业具有负向效应，对其他所有行业均具有正向效应。能源强度因素除“其他行业”和居民生活行业外，对所有行业均具有负向效应，累计贡献碳排放2003.65×10⁴吨。产业结构因素对所有行业的碳排放均具有负向效应，累计贡献1568.23×10⁴吨。经济产出因素促进所有行业的碳排放，累计增加5787.35×10⁴吨，其中工业行业贡献2740.88×10⁴吨。人口因素也促进所有行业的碳排放，累计贡献549.21×10⁴吨。（3）脱钩模型分析表明，2007年至2008年，脱钩状态以不利的负脱钩为主。2008年至2010年，转变为有利的正脱钩，但2010年至2011年又回到不利的负脱钩状态。2011年至2022年，脱钩指数从1.43下降至0.13，总体呈现有利的弱脱钩状态。（4）各影响因素的脱钩效应显示，在2007—2008年期间，碳排放脱钩指数主要由能源强度效应和经济产出效应构成。在2012—2013年期间，能源结构效应变化不显著，保持弱脱钩状态，而能源强度效应显著下降，使脱钩状态由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩。产业结构效应保持强脱钩状态。在2017—2018年，经济产出效应由扩张性耦合状态转变为弱脱钩状态，而其他效应均呈现较为有利的正脱钩状态。在2021—2022年，所有效应均呈现有利的正脱钩状态，其中能源结构和能源强度效应表现为强脱钩。最后，本研究为海南作为自由贸易港、旅游岛、石油和航空燃油密集型省份以及生态文明试验区的发展提供了案例研究。

AI 翻訳（deepseek-v4-flash）。 正確を期す場合は下の原文を参照してください。

High-energy-consuming and high-emission industries have made enormous contributions to economic development, but their carbon emissions are also substantial. To achieve the “dual carbon” goals as early as possible, this study takes Hainan Province, China, as the study area and employs the LMDI method to decompose the factors influencing carbon emissions. The Tapio model is also used to analyze the decoupling relationship between the driving factors and carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) Carbon emissions in Hainan Province from 2007 to 2022 exhibited an overall upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 5.75%. Various oil products accounted for an average share of over 40.11%, but the share of electricity increased, while that of oil decreased. The sectors, ordered from the highest to lowest carbon emissions, are: industry > transportation > residential > agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery. (2) The decomposition results indicate that economic output, energy structure, and population size have positive effects on carbon emissions, while energy intensity and industrial structure have negative effects. At the sectoral level, the energy structure factor has a negative effect only on the transportation sector, and positive effects on all other sectors. The energy intensity factor has negative effects on all sectors except “other sectors” and the residential sector, with a cumulative contribution of 2003.65 × 104 tonnes of carbon emissions. The industrial structure factor has negative effects on carbon emissions across all sectors, with a cumulative contribution of 1568.23 × 104 tonnes. The economic output factor promotes emissions in all sectors, with a cumulative increase of 5787.35 × 104 tonnes, of which 2740.88 × 104 tonnes are from the industrial sector. The population factor also promotes emissions across all sectors, with a cumulative contribution of 549.21 × 104 tonnes. (3) The decoupling model analysis shows that from 2007 to 2008, the decoupling state was predominantly an unfavorable negative decoupling. From 2008 to 2010, it shifted to a favorable positive decoupling, but from 2010 to 2011 it returned to an unfavorable negative decoupling. From 2011 to 2022, the decoupling index declined from 1.43 to 0.13, indicating an overall favorable weak decoupling state. (4) The decoupling effects of individual influencing factors reveal that in the 2007–2008 period, the carbon emission decoupling index was mainly composed of the energy intensity effect and the economic output effect. In the 2012–2013 period, the energy structure effect did not change significantly and remained in a weak decoupling state, while the energy intensity effect declined markedly, changing the decoupling state from weak to strong decoupling. The industrial structure effect remained in a strong decoupling state. In 2017–2018, the economic output effect changed from an expansive coupling state to a weak decoupling state, while the other effects all showed relatively favorable positive decoupling states. In 2021–2022, all effects exhibited favorable positive decoupling states, among which the energy structure and energy intensity effects showed strong decoupling. Finally, this study provides a case study for the development of Hainan as a Free Trade Port, a tourism island, a petroleum- and aviation-fuel-intensive province, and a pilot ecological civilization zone.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.3390/su18157961first seen 2026-08-09 05:15:46