西バルカンにおける電力転換シナリオの分析：大気質と健康影響の評価
Analysis of power transition scenarios in the Western Balkans: Evaluating air quality and health impacts (原題)
Albana Kona, Rade Čađenović, Andreas Gavros, Fabio Monforti Ferrario, Philip Minnebo, Claudio Alejandro Belis
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
西バルカン諸国は褐炭依存の電力構成により欧州最悪級の大気汚染に直面している。本研究はJRCの電力市場モデルとNECPを比較し、FASSTツールで2015〜2040年の大気質・健康影響を推計した。炭素価格導入下で最適化シナリオは2030年までに5340人以上の早世を回避でき、NECP対策の完全実施は石炭廃止遅延シナリオ比で年5330人超の早世を防ぐと示す。
English
Western Balkans economies rely heavily on lignite, driving severe air pollution and rising costs as carbon pricing emerges. Benchmarking the JRC electricity market model against national NECPs and applying the FASST screening tool, the study estimates air quality and health impacts across two power pathways to 2040. Cost-optimized and full-NECP scenarios could avoid thousands of premature deaths annually by 2030 versus delayed coal phase-out.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
炭素価格と健康便益を結びつける評価枠組みは、日本のGX政策における石炭火力フェードアウトやSSBJ開示での気候・健康リスク統合を考える上で参考になる。
In the global GX context
This work links carbon pricing to quantified health co-benefits of coal phase-out, offering a template for transition-finance and disclosure debates where air-quality co-benefits are increasingly material to ISSB/CSRD climate-risk narratives.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:電力市場モデルと大気質モデルを統合した政策評価手法の実例として参照できる。
🏢実務担当者:炭素価格下での石炭資産の座礁リスクと健康便益を投資判断に組み込む根拠になる。
🏛政策担当者:NECPと地域市場の整合や石炭廃止時期の健康・経済便益を政策設計に反映できる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Most Western Balkans (WB) economies heavily rely on lignite for electricity production, contributing to some of Europe’s most severe air pollution levels. Consequently, electricity costs are likely to rise as carbon pricing becomes operational, with the potential additional risk of interfering in the European Union (EU) accession process if national emission ceilings are not met. National strategies remain fragmented from the regional integrated WB electricity market, highlighting the urgent need for coherent, evidence-based transition roadmaps. To bridge this gap, we benchmarked the Joint Research Centre (JRC) integrated WB Electricity Market Model (EMM) against each economy National Energy and Climate Action Plans (NECP), highlighting synergies and divergences to guide forthcoming national strategies revisions. Then these scenarios are analysed with the JRC Fast Scenario Screening Tool (JRC-FASST), to estimate air quality and health impacts under two distinct electricity pathways from 2015 to 2040. The magnitude of benefits varies across scenarios, each of which is designed to meet specific objectives. From an economic perspective, the cost-optimisation scenario (EMM 2024) could prevent over 5340 premature deaths by 2030, compared with the previous forecast (EMM 2022). From a policy perspective, full implementation of NECP-BAT power sector measures would avoid more than 5330 yearly premature deaths in 2030 relative to a scenario that delays by five years the decommissioning of coal power plants. The emission control techniques envisaged in the same scenario would halve air pollution-related mortality in 2030 compared to business as usual (NECP-EXT).
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egyr.2026.109802first seen 2026-11-03 04:40:21 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:34:24
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