Next steps in the energy transition—a high-impact forum

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:Provides a broad overview of current research directions and gaps in energy transition studies, useful for framing interdisciplinary research.

🏢実務担当者:Offers insights into the complexity of energy transitions, but lacks direct actionable guidance for corporate sustainability teams.

🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of linking energy security with climate policy, relevant for designing robust transition strategies.

The Paris Climate Agreement from December 2015 set a clear pathway for reducing global greenhouse-gas emissions to reach carbon neutrality around the middle of this century [1]. Energy production through fossil fuels constitutes around two-thirds of the emissions subject to be reduced and fossil fuels stand for ca 80% of all energy produced [2]. Energy is thus a central area for climate change mitigation, but unfortunately, the global emissions have not yet shown a declining trajectory toward the goals set emphasizing the urgency of measures to mitigate the climate crisis. The aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic with an economic upswing and the Russian invasion in Ukraine in year 2022 also raised new concerns on possible adverse effects on the emissions. The effects of increasing geopolitical tension cause uncertainty, e.g. through new trade barriers and fragmentation, which could have a negative impact on the deployment of clean energy technologies. Furthermore, China, Europe and the United States are increasingly competing on acquiring access to the critical minerals needed for different clean energy technologies, causing additional geopolitical tensions. Actually, the global fight for critical minerals is becoming costly and damaging with potential negative effects on the mitigation efforts [3]. On the positive side, increased uptake of new renewable energy technologies and political declarations of committing to reduce emissions, provide new hope for the future [4]. And the massive renewable energy investments were a key factor in successfully combating the much-feared energy crisis in Europe during the winter 2022/2023 due to the Russia–Ukraine war [5], reinforcing the confidence that expanding new energy technologies is the right path to take. However, moving on this path is not necessarily easy. Experiences to date show that energy transitions are highly complex and contain uncertainties and unknown positive or negative factors, which may emerge later (such as the present geopolitical issues). The transitions involve profound political and social dimensions which go beyond the traditional techno-economic or neo-classical economic thinking [6]. Thus, accelerating the transitions needs to be viewed more broadly than before, incorporating knowledge from several sectors and disciplines, covering emerging technologies, energy infrastructures, destabilizing and shifting energy systems, as well as markets, public policy, the economy and a range of cultural and social aspects. The war in Ukraine and its consequences also signal for more strongly linking energy security and climate change mitigation and adaptation together. To investigate the different facets of energy transitions and possible new directions in associated research, Oxford Open Energy journal issued a Special Collection (SC) of papers under the theme ‘Next Steps in the Energy Transition—A High-Impact Forum’ in summer 2022. The scope of the SC was intentionally defined broad enough to capture the latest stand of research and beyond, which could provide stronger scientific insight into the problems involved and solutions to accelerate the energy transitions. A strong multi-disciplinary approach was favored here. The Special Collection was launched through a webinar on 25 May 2022—‘The Energy Transition in the Current Crisis: Opportunity or Reversion?’ Close to 100 registrations were received. Three internationally well-known scientists first shared their views on ‘burning issues’ followed by an interactive online panel serving up a broad interdisciplinary conversation with references to the energy crisis resulting from the Russian war in Ukraine. In the webinar, Professor Patrick Bond from the University of the Western Cape, South Africa talked about ‘Energy justice and inequality issues’. Professor Bond covered burning issues related to natural gas in the South Africa, which is the largest greenhouse-gas emitter in Africa due mainly to coal-fired power plants. The electricity shortage sparked increased commercial interests—especially from TotalEnergies and Shell—in local fossil fuel extraction. South Africa may have 10 billion barrel-equivalents of natural gas deep offshore, which raises the question of whether gas would be a transitional fuel, or instead a stranded asset once global regulation of methane is tightened. On the other hand, eco-social mobilization against gas originating from civil society—on the beaches, at petrol stations and in six courtroom cases—stopped most of the seismic blasting exploration. The challenge is to fuse this movement with poor people’s movements for more free basic electricity (beyond 50 kWh/household/month at present), universal renewable energy and climate justice. Climate change is already responsible for extreme weather effects in the region, such as a ‘Rain Bomb’ in April 2022 with 500 fatalities. South Africa’s major contribution to emissions is raising the potential need for stronger penalties, such as Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism tariff or related form of climate sanctions, so as to compel the state and corporations to cut the fossil-fuel habit. While local professional debates on energy and climate change are robust, the most important factor will be social mobilizations that can one day rise to the level that transformative actions require. Research Professor Paula Kivimaa from the Finnish Environment Institute, Finland, highlighted on ‘Security and Low-Carbon energy policies’. She told that prior to the attack of Russia on Ukraine rather little attention had been paid to what security implications the unfolding energy transitions have both via the expansion of renewable energy technologies and the phase out of fossil fuels. While the energy geopolitics literature had begun to explore this, the topic was not a part of sustainability transition or low-carbon energy transition research communities at the time. Professor Marie Münster from Technical University of Denmark, Denmark, discussed the ‘Natural gas dependency with Denmark as case study’ emphasizing the high reliance of many European countries on natural gas constituting a quarter of European Union (EU) energy consumption of which 80% is imported and 40% came from Russia (source: Eurostat). Denmark has also imported 80% of its natural gas demand, but the country has steadily decreased its reliance on natural gas. Hence, natural gas stands just for 15% of the energy consumed and furthermore 20% of the gas demand has been met by biomethane, ensuring a comparably high security of supply (source: Danish Energy Agency Statistics). She also compared the plans by the IEA [7], EU [8] and Denmark [9] for mitigating the negative effects of the Ukrainian war on the gas the security of supply. The plans all addressed measures over the full value chain from supply to demand including measures addressing the high energy prices. Many of the measures would assist the green transition based on energy savings and more renewables. The overview highlighted various possibilities on measures that could contribute to a green transition—and the need to avoid potential long term fossil lock-in effects during an energy crisis. In the panel discussion Chaired by Professor Lena Neij from Lund University, Sweden and Professor Peter D. Lund, Aalto University, Finland, the participants were asked to reflect on some of the topical questions below: How will the current war in Ukraine affect the energy transition: toward the Paris Agreement or away from it? What kind of geopolitical effects in energy could result from the crisis in Ukraine? How can the short-term actions in response to energy supply issues from the war in Ukraine be aligned with the long-term Paris Agreement goals to cut emissions? Who are the winners and losers in the present energy crisis? The key messages from the discussions underlined the uncertainty in the energy transition and in meeting the Paris Agreement. Many questions were raised, highlighting the need for research in several fields and for supporting a vibrant discussion on the topic engaging researchers from several disciplines. Energy efficiency, renewable energy and energy security were highlighted as key areas in the transformation process supported by research on innovative policy making and social innovation. The webinar was accompanied by a Call for Papers regarding the Special Collection on the ‘Next Steps in the Energy Transition—A High-Impact Forum’. The Guest-Editors chose 10 highly relevant papers for the SC as a selection comprising both invited papers and some otherwise submitted to the year 2022 issue of Oxford Open Energy. This set of papers covered both fundamental and applied themes on the energy transitions, policy and social issues, implications, technologies and implementation, among others. Next, a short resume of the key findings of the ten papers is given: In his opinion paper, ‘Perspectives on the pervasive energy-systems transformations’, Nakicenovic [10] emphasized the need for a fundamental energy-systems transformation that will bring multiple co-benefits for health, climate and other challenges facing humanity and especially those without access to affordable and clean energy services. Zero-carbon electricity and electrification of energy end use were perceived central to achieving higher efficiencies, decarbonization and net-zero emissions. But at the same time, one should not forget the transition is about people, societies and about values and behaviors. A key question will be whether humanity will have the political will to collectively achieve the energy-systems transformation toward a sustainable future and net-zero emissions in merely three decades. In their research article, ‘Faster, broader, and deeper! Suggested directions for research on net-zero transitions’, Andersen et al. [11] discussed how the net-zero challenge presents transition scholarship with four enhanced research challenges that merit

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1093/ooenergy/oiad011first seen 2026-08-02 18:31:19