PLNインドネシアにおけるRUPTL 2025–2034を加速するマルチウィナー・マルチPPA調達戦略
A Multi-Winner Multi-PPA Procurement Strategy to Accelerate RUPTL 2025–2034 at PLN Indonesia (原題)
Sidik Mustafa, Gatot Yudoko
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
インドネシアの電力供給事業計画RUPTL 2025–2034の再エネ目標に対し、調達からPPA締結への転換率が低いボトルネックを混合手法で分析した。AHPにより「バンドリング：マルチウィナー・マルチPPA」戦略が優先度0.399で最上位となり、感度分析でも安定していた。単一買い手型電力会社における調達の断片化を減らしつつ柔軟性を保つ統合的枠組みを提案する。
English
This study analyzes renewable energy procurement bottlenecks at Indonesia's PLN, where only 8.34% of capacity entering procurement reached PPA signing. Using mixed methods including AHP with 12 experts, it identifies fragmented project-by-project procurement as a key controllable factor. The 'Bundling: Multi-Winner, Multi-PPA' strategy ranks highest (weight 0.399) and remains stable under sensitivity analysis, offering an integrated procurement framework for single-buyer utilities.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本でも再エネ調達の長期契約や入札制度の設計は重要課題であり、単一買い手型の調達改革は電力市場改革やグリーン成長戦略の文脈で参考になる。特にPPAリスク配分や規制不確実性への対処は、日本の企業PPAやFIT/FIP制度の議論にも示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
This paper addresses procurement bottlenecks in a single-buyer utility, relevant to global discussions on scaling renewable PPAs and de-risking investment in emerging markets. It offers a structured approach to bundling projects, which can inform transition finance and policy design for accelerating renewable deployment under national energy plans.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:AHPと混合手法を用いた調達ボトルネック分析の実証例として、エネルギー転換研究に有用。
🏢実務担当者:単一買い手型電力会社や再エネ開発企業が、調達プロセスの断片化を解消しPPA締結率を高めるための戦略的枠組みを提供する。
🏛政策担当者:再エネ導入目標の実現に向け、調達制度のバンドリングやリスク配分の見直しを検討する際のエビデンスとなる。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Background: Indonesia’s Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL) 2025–2034 sets ambitious renewable energy targets, yet project realization remains substantially below plan. Between 2021 and 2024, only 1,606.18 MW of the 5,096 MW target reached Commercial Operation Date, while only 8.34% of capacity entering procurement initiation during 2021–2025 progressed to Power Purchase Agreement signing. Objective: This study aims to identify the principal factors associated with renewable energy procurement bottlenecks at PT PLN (Persero), examine stakeholder perceptions of the current procurement process, and prioritize an appropriate procurement strategy to support RUPTL implementation. Methods: This study employed a mixed-methods approach that included performance gap analysis, the Kepner–Tregoe method, the fishbone diagram, SWOT–PESTEL analysis, a purposive survey of 24 respondents, and AHP. The AHP assessment involved 12 internal experts from PLN, with 10 experts retained in the final analysis after two respondents were excluded for failing to meet the consistency threshold (CR ≤ 0.10). The strategic priorities were then tested through a sensitivity analysis. Results: The analysis identified fragmented project-by-project procurement and the relatively small scale of individual projects as primary controllable factors associated with low procurement conversion. Stakeholder findings also highlighted regulatory uncertainty, PPA risk allocation, and procurement-process complexity. AHP prioritized the Bundling: Multi-Winner, Multi-PPA alternative with a global priority weight of 0.399, and sensitivity analysis showed that this priority remained stable across most criterion-weight variations. Conclusion: The proposed strategy provides an integrated procurement framework for reducing process fragmentation while preserving flexibility across project characteristics. The framework may support PLN and other single-buyer utilities in structuring more coordinated renewable energy procurement.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.59261/bustechno.v7i5.833first seen 2026-10-25 04:44:46 · last seen 2026-11-06 04:47:31
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