Macroeconomic effects of Nigeria’s energy transition with a dynamic CGE analysis of natural gas and renewables
ナイジェリアのエネルギー転換のマクロ経済効果：天然ガスと再生可能エネルギーの動的CGE分析 (AI 翻訳)
Ojo Johnson Adelakun, Abiola Akande, Yemisi Adelakun
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、ナイジェリアの化石燃料から天然ガス・再生可能エネルギーへの移行がマクロ経済に与える影響を動的CGEモデルで分析。3つの政策シナリオ（現行、ガス、再エネ）を2060年までシミュレーションし、GDP・投資・排出原単位を比較。ガスシナリオが成長と排出削減のバランスに優れる一方、再エネシナリオは排出削減効果は高いが経済成長が低いというトレードオフを示した。アフリカ諸国の低炭素移行における戦略的順序付けの重要性を強調。
English
This study uses a dynamic CGE model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of Nigeria's transition from fossil fuels to natural gas and renewables. Three scenarios (Current Policy, Gas Energy, Renewable Energy) are simulated to 2060, comparing GDP, investment, and emissions intensity. Results show gas provides a balance between growth and emission reduction, while renewables achieve greater emission cuts but lower economic growth. The paper highlights the trade-off between decarbonization and development in Africa and calls for strategic sequencing of transition policies.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
本研究はナイジェリアを対象とするが、天然ガスを移行燃料として位置づけるシナリオ分析は、日本のエネルギー政策やLNG投資戦略にも示唆を与える。また、アフリカにおける気候変動対策と経済成長の両立に関する実証研究として、日本企業のサプライチェーン対応や投融資判断の参考となる。
In the global GX context
This paper contributes to the global debate on energy transition pathways in developing economies, particularly the role of natural gas as a transition fuel. It offers empirical evidence on the macroeconomic trade-offs between growth and decarbonization, relevant for just transition discussions in international climate policy and for investors in African energy infrastructure.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Dynamic CGE methodology and scenario design for energy transition modeling in resource-dependent economies.
🏢実務担当者:Strategic insights for energy companies and investors evaluating natural gas versus renewables in African markets.
🏛政策担当者:Empirical evidence on the growth-emissions trade-off to inform national energy transition planning and international climate commitments.
📄 Abstract（原文）
The global shift toward climate-friendly energy systems presents both a challenge and an opportunity for resource-dependent economies like Nigeria. This study investigates the macroeconomic implications of transitioning from fossil fuels to cleaner energy alternatives, specifically natural gas and renewable energy, using a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model based on Nigeria’s 2018 Social Accounting Matrix. The analysis aligns with the broader goal of balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability, central to Africa’s climate and trade policy discourse. Three policy scenarios are simulated: the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), Gas Energy Scenario (GES), and Renewable Energy Scenario (RES), to evaluate their long-term impacts on key macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP, investment, sectoral value-added, and emissions intensity up to 2060. Results reveal that while CPS and GES yield stronger growth trajectories with real GDP peaking at 4.6% and 4.5% respectively, the RES scenario lags, reaching a modest 1.5% peak. Investment patterns echo this trend, highlighting the pivotal role of gas as a transitional fuel that balances growth and emissions mitigation. Sectoral performance under CPS and GES significantly outpaces RES, particularly in industry and services. Notably, the RES scenario achieves the greatest reduction in emissions relative to GDP, but at the cost of subdued economic performance. These findings highlight the central trade-off between aggressive decarbonisation and developmental objectives in Africa’s low-carbon transition. This paper contributes novel insights into the design of climate-friendly trade and energy policies that are both growth-oriented and environmentally responsible. It calls for strategic sequencing and investment in transition infrastructure to ensure a just and resilient transformation of African economies, with lessons that extend beyond Nigeria.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-026-03914-2first seen 2026-07-23 05:03:22
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