サウジアラビアにおける気候変動の電力需要と家計支出への長期影響
Long-term impacts of climate change on electricity demand and household expenditure in Saudi Arabia (原題)
Ansir Ilyas, Puneet Kamboj, Fahad Alswaina, Dr Pavithra Kumar Shetty, Mohamad Issa Hejazi, Yoshihide Wada
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
サウジアラビアを対象に、GCAM-KSAモデルでSSP1–3とRCP2.6/7.0を組み合わせ、2100年までの冷房需要と家計電力支出を推計した研究。冷房度日は最大85%増加し、2060年以降は気候要因が需要増の主因となる。家計支出は最大45%増加し、長期エネルギー計画への適応策統合の必要性を示す。
English
Using GCAM-KSA, this study projects climate impacts on cooling demand and household electricity expenditure in Saudi Arabia through 2100 under SSP1–3 and RCP2.6/7.0. Cooling Degree Days rise up to 85%, with climate becoming the dominant demand driver after 2060. Household expenditures attributable to climate rise 32–45% under RCP7.0, underscoring the need to embed adaptation in long-term energy planning.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本にとって直接の対象国ではないが、気候変動が電力ピーク需要と家計負担に与える長期定量手法は、日本の電力需給計画や気候リスク開示（TCFD/SSBJ）における物理的リスク評価の参考になる。
In the global GX context
Adds quantitative evidence on how physical climate risk translates into electricity demand and household cost trajectories, relevant to TCFD/ISSB physical-risk assessment and adaptation planning in disclosure frameworks, particularly for high-warming regions.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:SSP×RCP統合による需要・支出の長期推計手法と気候・社会経済要因の分離分析が参考になる。
🏢実務担当者:高温地域の電力事業者や需要家が、冷房需要増と支出増を見据えた長期リスク評価に活用できる。
🏛政策担当者:長期エネルギー計画に気候適応策を組み込む必要性と、家計負担増への政策的対応を示唆する。
📄 Abstract（原文）
With regional warming across the Arabian Peninsula occurring at twice the global average and driving summer peak electricity loads to nearly 80% of total system capacity, understanding long-term energy implications is critical for Saudi Arabia's national climate resilience. Consequently, this study assesses the impacts of climate change on thermal comfort, energy demand, and household electricity expenditure through 2100. Using the multi-sectoral Global Change Assessment Model for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (GCAM-KSA), we integrated three regionally updated Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–3) with two climate pathways: RCP7.0 (high impact) and RCP2.6 (low impact). Our results indicate a shift in thermal conditions by 2100 relative to the 1981–2014 baseline. Cooling Degree Days (CDD) are projected to increase up to 28% and 85% under the low and high-impact pathways, respectively, while Heating Degree Days (HDD) remain negligible. Furthermore, the temporal distribution of CDD expands significantly, representing a substantial lengthening of the summer season beyond mid-century. By isolating socioeconomic and climate drivers, we find that high socioeconomic development (SSP3) initially drives a 33–53% rise in cooling demand through 2060 compared to 2025. However, climate impacts emerge as the dominant accelerator between 2060 and 2100, independently driving cooling service demand up by an additional 38–49% (RCP7.0) and 13–16% (RCP2.6). Consequently, annual average household expenditures attributable to climate impacts are projected to increase by 32–45% (RCP7.0) and 7–11% (RCP2.6) in 2100. These findings highlight the importance of integrating climate adaptation strategies into long-term energy planning to mitigate rising household expenditure.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2026.109648first seen 2026-11-13 04:55:24
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