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炭素価格は国際海運の排出をどのように再配分するか？

How does Carbon Pricing Reallocate Emissions in Global Shipping? (原題)

Xinyue Pu, Xi Lin, Jingyang Du, Xiwen Bai

Crossrefプレプリント2026-01-01#炭素価格Origin: Global経営インパクト: 調達リスク対象セクター: transport
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.6860418
原典: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6860418

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

EU ETSの海運への適用が、ハブ・アンド・スポーク型の積み替えを誘発し、排出を再配分することを実証。7791の需要ペアの分析で、迂回的な積み替えが貨物量の41.92%を占め、回廊全体の排出を1.94%増加させ、EU ETSの排出削減効果を7.24%侵食することを示した。

English

This study shows that extending the EU ETS to maritime transport incentivizes evasive hub-and-spoke transshipment, reallocating emissions rather than reducing them globally. Analyzing 7,791 demand pairs, it finds transshipment accounts for 41.92% of cargo volume, raising corridor emissions by 1.94%, reducing EU ETS exposure by up to 34.77%, and eroding 7.24% of abatement.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本は海運大国であり、EU ETSの適用は日本企業の輸送コストや排出削減戦略に直接影響する。本研究成果は、国際海運の炭素規制がもたらすネットワーク再編と排出漏出のメカニズムを理解する上で重要であり、日本の海運政策や国際交渉に示唆を与える。

In the global GX context

This paper provides critical evidence on carbon leakage in maritime transport under regional carbon pricing, informing global policy design for shipping emissions. It highlights the need for international coordination to prevent evasion and ensure effective climate regulation in the shipping sector.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence and a modeling framework for understanding carbon leakage in maritime transport under regional carbon pricing.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights the risk of network reconfiguration and emissions reallocation, informing shipping companies and logistics providers about potential compliance and operational impacts.

🏛政策担当者:Demonstrates the unintended consequences of segment-based carbon pricing, urging policymakers to consider global coordination and anti-evasion measures.

📄 Abstract（原文）

The extension of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to maritime transport represents an early large-scale regional attempt to apply economywide carbon pricing to global shipping. By regulating emissions at the level of sailing segments, however, the policy may induce unintended shipping network adjustments. Here we reveal how this design can incentivize evasive hub-and-spoke transshipment, leading to a reallocation of emissions rather than a proportional reduction at the global level. Using multi-source, large-scale shipping data, we document a systematic shift toward hub-and-spoke transshipment. With a stylized network model, we characterize the incentive mechanisms underlying this behavior and identify the conditions under which transshipment dominates direct shipping, generating carbon leakage. Applying our framework to 7791 demand pairs on major trades of Europe imports, we find that although only about 11.71% of routes adopt transshipment, they account for over 41.92% of cargo volume. Relative to an ETS counterfactual without evasive adjustments, this reconfiguration raises total corridor-level emissions by approximately 1.94%, reduces aggregate EU ETS exposure by up to 34.77%, and erodes 7.24% of the emissions abatement that the ETS would otherwise achieve. These results suggest that market responses to carbon pricing can substantially reshape the effectiveness of regional maritime climate regulation, with implications for the design of future carbon policies in global transport.

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