海面上昇が世界のマングローブ再生の炭素永続性を制約する
Sea‐Level Rise Constrains the Carbon Permanence of Global Mangrove Restoration (原題)
Jincheng Wu, Zhe Zhao, Philippe Ciais, Shanshan Song, Chenyi Yuan, Guanghui Lin, Bertrand Guenet, Annemiek I. Stegehuis, Xiaoshan Zhu, Ruili Li, Ruikun Gou, Yuchen Meng, Minxuan Sun, Wei Li
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は衛星データと現地観測に基づき、世界のマングローブ地上部バイオマス（AGB）を推定し、将来シナリオ（SSP126/SSP585）での変化を予測した。高温暖化シナリオでは海面上昇によりAGBが19.3%減少し、再生戦略の効果は限定的であることを示した。炭素貯留の長期的永続性には海面上昇の影響が重要である。
English
This study estimates global mangrove aboveground biomass (AGB) using satellite data and field observations, projecting changes under SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. Under high warming, sea-level rise causes a 19.3% decrease in AGB, with restoration strategies providing only a 2.0% increase. The findings highlight that sea-level rise constrains the long-term carbon permanence of mangrove restoration.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本では、ブルーカーボン生態系（マングローブ、海草藻場）の炭素貯留が注目されており、Jブルークレジット制度や沿岸域の気候変動適応策に関連する。本研究は海面上昇の影響を考慮した炭素貯留の持続可能性評価に示唆を与える。
In the global GX context
Globally, mangrove restoration is a key nature-based solution for climate mitigation and adaptation. This study provides critical evidence that sea-level rise can undermine carbon permanence, informing international frameworks like the IPCC and national climate commitments (NDCs) on the long-term effectiveness of blue carbon projects.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides a global dataset and scenario analysis linking sea-level rise to mangrove carbon permanence, useful for blue carbon research.
🏢実務担当者:Informs coastal restoration project planning by highlighting regions where carbon permanence is less constrained by sea-level rise.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the need to integrate sea-level rise projections into blue carbon accounting and climate adaptation policies.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Mangroves are characterized by high carbon sequestration rates, and future changes in mangrove biomass will be impacted by factors such as climate change, sea level rise, and management strategies. Here, we produce a map of present-day global mangrove aboveground biomass (AGB) based on extensive field observations and satellite data, giving a global mangrove AGB of 1.76 Pg dry matter (DM). After accounting for potential growth to maturity, future changes in climatic and hydrological conditions, possible restoration strategies, and sea-level rise, the global total mangrove AGB is projected to increase by 16.7% under the low-warming scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 1 and Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, SSP126) and decrease by 19.3% under the high-warming scenario (SSP585) by 2100. Sea-level rise encroaching upon the growth space of mangroves will cause a biomass loss of 41.6% in the high-warming scenario, whereas restoration strategies would only increase AGB by 2.0%. Our study shows that sea-level rise limits the potential of mangrove restoration to maintain carbon stocks, and regions less constrained by sea-level rise offer greater potential for the long-term permanence.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71060first seen 2026-08-19 04:51:33
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