ロシア水素産業発展戦略の転換と持続可能性分析：供給中心戦略から国内需要中心戦略へ

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🔬研究者:水素政策の持続可能性評価フレームワークと、地政学ショック後の戦略転換を分析する事例研究として有用。

🏢実務担当者:ロシア由来の水素・アンモニア調達や北東アジア供給網に関与する企業は、認証・制裁・需要不確実性を調達リスクとして評価すべき。

🏛政策担当者:資源国向け水素政策と北東アジア水素サプライチェーン設計において、輸出依存の脆弱性と国内需要基盤の重要性を示唆。

Russia designated hydrogen as a strategic industry to preserve its position as a major energy exporter through the Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2035 (2020) and the Concept for the Development of Hydrogen Energy (2021). Based on these policy frameworks, the government promoted a multi-pathway technological strategy encompassing blue, nuclear, and green hydrogen, together with a regional cluster strategy focused on the Northwestern region, the Far East (Sakhalin), and the Arctic. However, the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2022 and the subsequent Western sanctions fundamentally undermined the strategic assumptions underlying this approach by eliminating access to the European export market and international hydrogen certification systems. Although Russia sought to redirect its hydrogen exports toward Asian markets, this strategy failed to achieve the expected outcomes. This study examines how Russia's hydrogen development strategy has evolved in response to these external shocks and evaluates its long-term sustainability. To this end, the study employs qualitative policy analysis and a sustainability assessment framework that integrates economic, technological, institutional, geopolitical, and domestic demand dimensions. The analysis draws on Russia's major hydrogen policy documents, related legislation, official statistics, and international reports to compare the strategic orientations before and after the Russia–Ukraine War. The findings indicate that Russia has begun shifting its hydrogen policy from an export-oriented, supply-centered model toward a domestic demand-centered strategy by promoting hydrogen utilization in the steel, chemical, oil refining, and transportation sectors. Nevertheless, the industry continues to face substantial structural constraints, including limited technological self-reliance, weak economic viability, declining investment, inadequate infrastructure, institutional deficiencies, geopolitical uncertainty, and an underdeveloped domestic demand base. The study demonstrates that the long-term competitiveness of Russia's hydrogen industry depends not on the superiority of any single hydrogen production technology or its abundant natural resource endowment, but rather on the development of a diversified technology portfolio and the establishment of a stable domestic demand base. These findings provide important policy implications for hydrogen industry development in resource-rich countries and for the formulation of hydrogen supply chain strategies in Northeast Asia.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.19170/eebs.2026.50.3.193first seen 2026-09-20 04:36:20