Drivers of China Green Bonds: An ARDL Analysis of Economic Policy Uncertainty, Financial Market Volatility, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices
中国グリーンボンドの要因分析：経済政策不確実性、金融市場変動、為替レート、商品価格のARDL分析 (AI 翻訳)
Susilo Nur Aji Cokro Darsono, Chuanchen Bi, Intan Mutiara, Mahrus Lutfi Adi Kurniawan, Thanh Van Pho, Tran Thai Ha Nguyen
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国のグリーンボンド価格に影響を与えるマクロ経済変数をARDLモデルで分析。経済政策の不確実性は短期的・長期的に負の影響を与える一方、国際金融市場の変動と為替レートは長期的に正の効果を示す。銅・ニッケル価格は短期的に負、長期的に正または中立。石油価格は短期的に正だが長期的効果は減衰。政策立案者や投資家への示唆を提供。
English
This study analyzes macroeconomic drivers of China's green bond prices using an ARDL model. Economic policy uncertainty negatively impacts green bonds in both short and long run. Global financial market volatility and exchange rates have positive long-term effects. Nickel and copper prices show short-term negative but long-term positive/neutral effects; oil prices have short-term positive but diminishing long-term impact. Provides insights for policymakers and investors.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
中国のグリーンボンド市場は世界最大級であり、その価格変動要因の理解は日本を含む国際的なグリーンファイナンス戦略に示唆を与える。日本のグリーンボンド市場拡大やSSBJ開示との連動を考える上で、マクロ経済変数とグリーンボンドの関係性を理解する参考となる。
In the global GX context
China is the world's largest green bond market; understanding its price drivers informs global green finance strategies. The study's findings on how economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices affect green bonds are relevant for international investors and policymakers seeking to stabilize green bond markets amid macroeconomic volatility.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Provides empirical evidence on macro-financial drivers of green bond pricing in China using ARDL methodology.
🏢実務担当者:Offers insights for green bond investors on how economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices affect returns.
🏛政策担当者:Highlights the importance of stable economic policies to support green bond market development.
📄 Abstract（原文）
Understanding the impact of macroeconomic variables on China’s green bond market is crucial for developing effective policies and strategies that promote sustainable finance. This study examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, exchange rates, and commodity prices on green bond prices in China in the long- and short term. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for monthly data spanning January 2019-December 2023, the study indicates that China’s economic policy uncertainty significantly negatively impacts green bond prices in both the short and long term. In contrast, global financial market volatility and exchange rate have positive and significant long-term effects on green bonds, reinforcing their role as a stabilising asset during economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, nickel and copper prices negatively affect green bonds in the short term but show positive or neutral long-term effects. By contrast, oil prices positively impact green bonds in the short term, driven by heightened awareness of energy transition needs, but their influence diminishes in the long term. These findings provide necessary insights for policymakers and investors in strengthening the green bond market through stable economic policies and strategic investment decisions.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openaire https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.19188first seen 2026-05-05 19:07:39
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