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The Adoption–Effectiveness Gap in Carbon Pricing: Global Evidence from Policy Adoption and Emissions Outcomes

炭素価格付けにおける導入と効果のギャップ：政策導入と排出結果からの世界規模の証拠 (AI 翻訳)

Canturk, Serkan

Zenodoデータセット2026-06-19#炭素価格Origin: Global
DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20766494
原典: https://zenodo.org/records/20766494

🤖 gxceed AI 要約

日本語

本研究は、1990〜2022年の約200カ国のパネルデータを用いて、炭素価格制度の導入要因と排出削減効果を分析した。導入は所得やEU加盟と正の相関がある一方、化石燃料依存・高排出国では導入確率が低い。炭素価格制度導入国では一人当たりCO2排出量が約11%減少し、新興国でも効果は確認された。「導入と効果のギャップ」が明らかになった。

English

This paper examines the adoption and emissions impact of carbon pricing using a panel of nearly 200 countries (1990-2022). Adoption is driven by income and EU membership, but deterred by fossil fuel dependence and high emissions. Where implemented, carbon pricing reduces per-capita CO2 by about 11%, with effects also observed in emerging economies. The findings highlight an 'adoption-effectiveness gap': effective policies are blocked where they are most needed.

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters

日本のGX文脈において

日本の炭素価格政策（炭素税、GXリーグ）の設計や、化石燃料依存からの脱却の必要性に示唆を与える。特に、排出削減効果が確認されている一方で、政治的障壁が導入を阻むメカニズムを理解する上で重要。

In the global GX context

This paper provides robust causal evidence that carbon pricing reduces emissions, but its adoption is politically blocked in fossil-dependent economies. This 'adoption-effectiveness gap' is a key challenge for global climate policy, especially for emerging economies and for informing international frameworks like the Paris Agreement.

👥 読者別の含意

🔬研究者:Provides rigorous causal estimates on carbon pricing effectiveness and adoption determinants using staggered DiD and hazard models, valuable for climate policy research.

🏢実務担当者:Highlights that carbon pricing can achieve measurable emission reductions, but companies in fossil-dependent regions face policy uncertainty; useful for scenario planning.

🏛政策担当者:Shows that carbon pricing works when adopted, but overcoming political barriers in fossil-rich countries requires complementary policies; relevant for designing international carbon pricing linkages.

📄 Abstract（原文）

Carbon pricing is the textbook instrument for climate mitigation, yet its global diffusion is uneven and its real-world effect on emissions—outside advanced economies—remains debated. This paper asks which conditions lead countries to adopt carbon pricing and whether adoption reduces emissions. Using a country-year panel of nearly 200 economies (1990–2022) that combines the World Carbon Pricing Database with emissions, economic, and governance indicators, we model adoption with a discrete-time hazard model and estimate the emissions effect with a staggered difference-in-differences estimator (Callaway and Sant’Anna), complemented by event-study, doubly-robust, and subsample analyses. Adoption is strongly predicted by income and EU/EEA membership and deterred by natural-resource rents and high per-capita emissions: the fossil-dependent economies with the most to gain are least likely to price carbon. Where adopted, carbon pricing is associated with lower per-capita CO2 emissions; unconditional estimates average about 26%, but our preferred covariate-adjusted estimate is about 11%, matching meta-analytic evidence, with effects that grow over time and flat pre-trends. The reduction survives excluding European adopters and remains significant (about 13%) among emerging economies. The findings reveal an “adoption–effectiveness gap”: carbon pricing is associated with measurable reductions, but the political economy of fossil dependence blocks it where mitigation is most needed.

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