Cost‐Effectiveness of Land Restoration Policies for Carbon Neutrality: Evidence From China's Reforestation
カーボンニュートラルに向けた土地回復政策の費用対効果：中国の植林からの証拠 (AI 翻訳)
Shuwei An
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
本研究は、中国の退耕還林（GGP）プログラムの費用対効果を評価。2001年から2023年までの衛星データを用い、森林面積の増加と炭素隔離コストが約11 USD/tCO2であることを示した。これは中国の排出量取引市場の価格（13.37 USD/tCO2）を下回り、政策の有効性を実証。
English
This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of China's Grain for Green Program for carbon neutrality. Using satellite data from 2001-2023, it finds forest area increased significantly and carbon sequestration costs averaged ~11 USD/tCO2, below China's ETS price of 13.37 USD/tCO2. The program demonstrates cost-effective carbon sequestration with co-benefits for rural development.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本のGX政策において、森林吸収源のコスト効果的な活用は重要課題。中国GGPの実証分析は、日本がJ-クレジット制度やGX-ETSにおける炭素クレジットの価格設定や森林由来クレジットの有効性を検討する上で貴重な示唆を提供する。
In the global GX context
This paper offers empirical evidence on the cost-effectiveness of large-scale reforestation for carbon sequestration, directly relevant to global nature-based solutions and carbon pricing mechanisms. It demonstrates that reforestation costs can be below carbon market prices, supporting integration of forestry into compliance markets.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:Researchers studying nature-based solutions, carbon sequestration costs, and land-use policy will find robust empirical methods and cost-benefit analysis applicable to other regions.
🏢実務担当者:Corporate sustainability teams exploring nature-based offsets can use this cost benchmark for evaluating reforestation projects.
🏛政策担当者:Policymakers designing carbon neutrality strategies and carbon pricing systems can consider the cost-effectiveness of reforestation as a complementary mitigation measure.
📄 Abstract（原文）
China's Grain for Green Program (GGP) represents the world's largest ecological restoration initiative, converting agricultural land to forests across 25 provinces since 1999. This study evaluates the cost‐effectiveness of the GGP in contributing to carbon neutrality goals through a comprehensive analysis of three key provinces: Shaanxi, Gansu, and Sichuan. Using multi‐temporal satellite datasets including MODIS forest‐area data (2001–2023), NDVI measurements (2000–2023), ESRI land‐use/land‐cover data (2017–2023), canopy‐height maps, and above‐ground biomass estimates (2007–2022), we quantify forest‐restoration outcomes and economic performance. Results show forest area increased from 135,434.5 km 2 (2001) to 195,443.9 km 2 (2023), with NDVI improving from 0.55 to 0.632. Cost–benefit analysis reveals positive net benefits of 637.2 billion RMB nationally, with average benefits of 60.17 × 10 3 RMB ha −1 year −1 . Carbon sequestration costs averaged approximately 11 USD/tCO 2 , significantly below current carbon pricing of 13.37 USD/tCO 2 in China's national emissions‐trading system. GIS spatial analysis identifies optimal restoration zones where ecological benefits exceed implementation costs. The program demonstrates that large‐scale forest restoration can achieve cost‐effective carbon sequestration while delivering substantial co‐benefits for rural development and ecosystem services. These findings provide crucial evidence for scaling nature‐based solutions to meet China's carbon neutrality commitments by 2060.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- semanticscholar https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.70408first seen 2026-05-15 17:13:12
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