The energy–governance–human development nexus: A system dynamics analysis of Iran

Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.

🔬研究者:システムダイナミクスを用いたエネルギー・ガバナンス・開発の統合モデル手法を参考にできる。

🏢実務担当者:エネルギー転換におけるガバナンスの重要性を理解し、部門横断的な戦略立案に活用できる。

🏛政策担当者:エネルギー政策とガバナンス改革の連携の必要性を示すエビデンスとして有用。

Fossil fuel-dependent economies face increasing challenges in balancing energy security, governance effectiveness, and human development under conditions of institutional complexity and sustainability transition. Although energy security is central to Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7), its multidimensional nature creates important interconnections with governance (SDG 16) and broader human development outcomes. However, existing studies have largely examined these dimensions independently and have paid limited attention to their dynamic interdependencies within an integrated analytical framework, particularly in developing and fossil fuel-dependent economies such as Iran. To address this knowledge gap, this study develops and empirically implements a dynamic energy–governance–human development nexus model using a System Dynamics (SD) and system-of-systems perspective. The proposed model establishes a simulation platform that integrates selected quantitative indicators of energy security, governance quality, and human development to examine reinforcing and balancing feedback structures, cross-sectoral interdependencies, and long-term trade-offs among these domains. Iran is selected as the case study due to its high dependence on fossil fuels, institutional governance challenges, and ongoing energy transition pressures. The simulation results demonstrate that governance quality significantly influences fossil fuel consumption, renewable energy investment, and CO₂ emissions, while improvements in energy accessibility and renewable energy deployment positively affect the Human Development Index (HDI) and poverty reduction. Sensitivity analysis further identifies fossil fuel dependency, renewable energy expansion, and governance stability as the most influential drivers of long-term development outcomes. The study reveals a dual causal relationship. First, sustainable progress within the nexus depends on integrated and cross-sectoral policy design rather than isolated technical interventions. Second, governance represents a critical leverage point capable of accelerating energy transition pathways and improving human development outcomes. The findings highlight the necessity of coordinated governance reform, renewable energy investment, and human-centered development strategies to enhance sustainability and resilience in resource-dependent economies.

• openalex https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nexus.2026.100774first seen 2026-08-01 05:02:29