地球温暖化下における哺乳類の生物多様性と自然の恵みへの高リスク地域
Areas of high risk for mammalian biodiversity and nature's contributions to people under global warming (原題)
Marta Cimatti, Andrea Sacchi, Moreno Di Marco
🤖 gxceed AI 要約
日本語
気候変動と土地利用変化が哺乳類の絶滅リスクと自然の恵み（NCP）に与える複合リスクを、生活史特性と気候・土地利用予測子を統合した比較絶滅リスクモデルで評価。SSP1-2.6とSSP5-8.5の下で将来リスクを投影し、マレーシア、西インドネシア、マダガスカル、東オーストラリアが哺乳類とNCP双方の高リスク地域であることを示した。炭素貯留や水質浄化、極端火災緩和を提供する生態系の保全が急務だと結論づける。
English
This study models combined extinction risk for mammals and loss of Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 warming scenarios, integrating life-history traits with climate and land-use predictors. It finds 52.3% of 474 species face increased extinction risk under the pessimistic scenario, with hotspots in Malaysia, Western Indonesia, Madagascar, and Eastern Australia that overlap with high-risk NCP areas (freshwater regulation, air quality, extreme-event mitigation). The authors urge targeted policies and sustainable land-use to protect both biodiversity and human well-being.
Unofficial AI-generated summary based on the public title and abstract. Not an official translation.
📝 gxceed 編集解説 — Why this matters
日本のGX文脈において
日本企業にとっては、TNFDや生物多様性クレジット、自然関連リスク開示を検討する際の科学的根拠として参照価値がある。特にサプライチェーンが東南アジア熱帯林に依存する企業は、調達リスク評価の文脈で本知見を活用できる。
In the global GX context
For global GX scholarship, this paper strengthens the scientific basis for nature-related disclosure frameworks (TNFD, ISSB biodiversity work) by quantifying where biodiversity and ecosystem-service risks spatially coincide. It offers empirical grounding for translating climate scenarios into nature-related financial risk assessments.
👥 読者別の含意
🔬研究者:気候・土地利用変化と生物多様性・NCPリスクの空間的重複を定量化する手法として、自然関連リスク研究に有用。
🏢実務担当者:東南アジア等の熱帯林に依存する調達を持つ企業は、TNFD開示やサプライチェーン自然リスク評価の根拠として活用可能。
🏛政策担当者:生物多様性と気候適応の相乗効果を狙う保全政策・土地利用規制の優先地域特定に示唆を与える。
📄 Abstract（原文）
Abstract Climate change drives more frequent and intense droughts, fires and heatwaves. Combined with land‐use change, it dramatically increases species extinction risk and the loss of Nature's Contributions to People (NCP). Here we analyzed the combined risk to species and NCP under future scenarios of global change. We developed a comparative extinction‐risk model for mammals sensitive to fire, drought, and extreme temperatures, integrating intrinsic life‐history traits with extrinsic climate and land‐use related predictors to estimate current and future extinction probabilities. Future risk was projected under alternative global warming scenarios representing low and high emissions pathways (SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5). We then identified high‐risk areas for both mammals and NCP, to highlight synergies for biodiversity conservation and NCP preservation. Our predictions show that 248 out of 474 species (52.3%) face an increased extinction risk (mean increase 0.36), while 226 (47.7%) face risk reduction (mean decrease 0.35) under the most pessimistic scenario. The highest extinction risk increases occurred in Malaysia, Western Indonesia, Madagascar, and Eastern Australia. These regions are also high‐risk areas for potential NCP: freshwater regulation, air quality regulation, and mitigation of extreme events. Preserving these regions is crucial to reduce habitat loss and human‐induced extinctions. Safeguarding these ecosystems, which provide carbon storage, clean water, and extreme fire mitigation, demands priority via targeted policies, sustainable land‐use, and climate adaptation to protect both biodiversity and human well‐being.
🔗 Provenance — このレコードを発見したソース
- openalex https://doi.org/10.1111/csp2.70366first seen 2026-10-11 04:37:22
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